Trump is becoming Putin's tool: How US-Russia diesel deal threatens Ukraine

Why Trump is pressuring Ukraine

According to a political analyst, the current crisis and Trump's attacks on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy resemble the situation in early March 2025 in many ways. The main reason for Trump's aggressive rhetoric now is the Republican Party's concern that it could lose control of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections, potentially exposing Trump to impeachment.

"The main reason for the rise in US diesel prices is the conflict with Iran and supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. But Trump cannot admit this because it is his fault. He needs a different explanation, and he found such an explanation in Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries," Fesenko noted.

The expert highlights a paradox: Ukrainian strikes are causing gasoline shortages in Russia, but the country is not facing critical problems with diesel fuel. In fact, Russia has even accumulated a surplus due to the suspension of exports. However, for Trump, blaming someone else is a convenient way to avoid taking responsibility for fuel prices in the eyes of voters ahead of the election.

What Putin stands to gain from the diesel deal

Russia is offering to supply relatively small volumes of diesel fuel — 300,000 metric tons in October and 500,000 in November. It's a drop in the bucket for a US market that consumes roughly 500,000 tons every day. For the Kremlin, however, the deal is part of a geopolitical strategy with three main goals:

Restoring Trump's trust: Putin is once again working to build a good relationship with the US president, seeking to use him as an ally.

Provoking a crisis between the US and Ukraine: The main goal is to pressure Washington into pushing Kyiv to unilaterally halt strikes on Russian oil refineries, with Ukraine facing the threat of reduced intelligence sharing, aid, or weapons supplies.

Setting a dangerous precedent: Economic deals between the US and Russia are being negotiated without an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, contradicting Washington's previously consistent position.

Could diesel become a tool Putin uses to pressure Trump?

According to Fesenko, the risks are real — Trump is temporarily becoming a hostage to Putin's game.

"We can see that Trump is becoming, to some extent, an instrument of Putin's policy, but because this contradicts US strategic interests, I believe this will eventually change. The only question is when: in a few weeks, a few months, or over a longer period," he said.

The expert added that the deal is a trigger that undermines the prospects for negotiations and distorts both the negotiation process and the US role in it, because it erodes trust in the US as a reliable mediator.

Is this a disaster for Ukraine?

Fesenko noted that while the situation creates serious risks and undermines the negotiation process, it is not a disaster. Rather, it is another crisis, with its peak expected before the November 3 elections in the US.

"Experience shows that when necessary and when Trump realizes the need, he can reach agreements with Zelenskyy and communicate with him normally... This isn't a systematic position on Trump's part. These swings, these mood rollercoasters, are classic Trump. Trump is like a natural disaster; sometimes you just have to wait it out," the political analyst concluded.

For its part, Ukraine is ready for a reasonable energy ceasefire, but only based on reciprocity — if Russia simultaneously halts strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. If Russia continues its attacks, Ukraine will have to defend itself and retaliate against Russia's most vulnerable targets.