Russia fakes Kostiantynivka capture as reality tells a different story, ISW says
Photo: Russia is fabricating the capture of Kostiantynivka, but the reality turned out to be different (Getty Images)
Russia may be using videos created with artificial intelligence to spread false claims about its successes near Kostiantynivka in Ukraine's Donetsk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
What videos are in question
Analysts drew attention to videos published on June 15 showing Russian troops displaying Russian flags in various areas near Kostiantynivka and in the village of Dovha Balka. On the same day, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed it had captured Dovha Balka.
ISW believes the flag videos may have been generated using artificial intelligence, which would be consistent with previous Kremlin information campaigns aimed at exaggerating Russian military advances.
What the Ukrainian command says
Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' 19th Army Corps, Brigadier General Oleksandr Bakulin, said the Russian command is conducting a separate information campaign centered on Kostiantynivka.
According to him, Russian commanders have already reported the alleged capture of the city and are now trying to find evidence on the ground to support those claims.
Bakulin also said that a recent video by Russia's 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade showing flags was part of such an information operation.
After the footage was filmed, the positions shown in the video were attacked by Ukrainian forces.
No full control
Despite Moscow's claims, Ukrainian military officials have not confirmed that Russia has established full control over Kostiantynivka.
According to Bakulin's assessment, between 93 and 153 Russian saboteurs are currently in the city, while Russian estimates claiming 250–300 troops are exaggerated.
Frontline map in the Kostiantynivka area (ISW)
Exaggeration of Russian claims
ISW emphasizes that the Russian Defense Ministry and Russian propaganda outlets systematically exaggerate the significance of even limited tactical successes.
Current claims about the allegedly inevitable loss of Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kramatorsk repeat narratives previously promoted about Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar.
The goal of the information campaign
According to analysts, Russian forces may achieve some tactical advances in the Kostiantynivka area during the summer of 2026.
At the same time, a rapid breakthrough of Ukrainian defenses or the capture of the entire Donetsk fortress belt remains unlikely.
ISW believes the main goal of the Kremlin's current information campaign is to pressure Western partners and secure political concessions.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that June and July could prove highly consequential in the war.
According to him, decisions made at the summits of the European Union, G7, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization could influence the diplomatic track and the conditions of a possible ceasefire.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi also stated that in May, Ukraine's Defense Forces liberated 100 square kilometers more territory than they lost.
