Russia at its peak: Expert explains why Moscow escalating panic with threats against Kyiv

According to Tymochko, even during the current mass strikes, Russia is effectively operating at the peak of its "capabilities." He noted that for the accumulation of new missiles, the Kremlin needs time, resources, finances, and production capacity.

"They cannot produce anything more in a single wave than what they are already producing now," he explained.

Main goal — panic and pressure on Europe

In the expert’s view, the Kremlin’s loud statements about new attacks are part of Russian propaganda and an attempt to escalate tensions as much as possible. Tymochko stressed that Russia is trying to achieve through fear, hysteria, and intimidation what it has failed to gain by military means.

At the same time, he said, the main pressure is directed not only at Ukraine but also at Kyiv’s European partners. Russian statements calling for the evacuation of diplomatic missions and foreign embassies from Kyiv effectively indicate potential strikes on civilian areas rather than military targets.

"They are deliberately threatening strikes on civilian infrastructure and residential buildings," he said.

According to Tymochko, such rhetoric only confirms the true nature of Russia’s actions against the Ukrainian population.

Russia is trying to hide its own weakness

Tymochko believes that the Kremlin fully understands it cannot sustain the current intensity of missile strikes for long. Moreover, each new wave of attacks may prove less effective than the previous one, further exposing the depletion of Russia’s capabilities.

That is why, according to the expert, Moscow is attempting to escalate the information and psychological pressure as much as possible, hoping to achieve a psychological impact before it becomes obvious that Russia is unable to scale up its attacks.

Tymochko also pointed out that similar information campaigns have been carried out by the Kremlin before, including narratives about a supposedly large-scale Russian offensive in 2026.

"They said that Putin was already going all-in, that the Donetsk region should be surrendered because the Russians would break through the defenses and reach Kyiv. And what do we have now? A failed spring campaign," he noted.

According to the expert, Russian forces are currently facing problems not only with advancing but also with holding certain positions.

"In the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, they are already retreating rather than advancing," Tymochko added.

How the Kremlin’s threats began

In recent days, Russia has sharply escalated threats of new strikes on Kyiv. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that attacks on the Ukrainian capital had allegedly "been carried out and will continue," and announced a separate statement from the Russian foreign ministry for foreign diplomats.

Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed it had begun "systematic, consecutive strikes" on Ukrainian military-industrial facilities and so-called "decision-making centers" in Kyiv. At the same time, Moscow urged foreigners, diplomatic staff, and international organizations to "leave Kyiv as soon as possible."

However, the Institute for the Study of War stated that Russia’s threats are linked less to any "response" to Ukrainian actions and more to the Kremlin’s attempt to conceal its own problems and setbacks.

EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Mathernova also stressed that European diplomats do not plan to leave Kyiv despite Russian pressure and threats.