Rising Russian army losses in Ukraine could reshape peace negotiations - Bloomberg
Russian forces unable to compensate for losses in Ukraine (illustrative photo: Russian media)
Losses of Russian army in war against Ukraine have sharply increased. Recently, they have approached level that is increasingly difficult for Kremlin to compensate without new wave of mobilization. This could potentially affect peace negotiations, Bloomberg reports.
According to European assessments, the current dynamics could seriously complicate Moscow's ability to replenish manpower. Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said that in December, the Defense Forces eliminated about 35,000 Russian servicemen.
In Kyiv, a strategic goal is described as increasing the number of eliminated Russian troops to 50,000 per month — almost twice the average NATO estimates of Russian losses in 2025. European intelligence services link the rise in lethality to more effective Ukrainian drone strikes and a smaller share of wounded personnel who survive.
Losses exceed replenishment
According to available estimates, the number of killed has already matched or exceeded recruitment rates in Russia. This means that without forced mobilization, it will become increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to maintain troop numbers.
At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin is avoiding such a step due to the negative experience of the 2022 draft. At that time, the so-called partial mobilization triggered a mass exodus of the population and public discontent.
Currently, the main tool for replenishing the army remains financial incentives — high salaries and large signing bonuses. Moscow claims this is sufficient to meet recruitment plans.
However, rising losses call into question the effectiveness of this model in the medium term. Russian forces are achieving only limited tactical successes on the frontline. No strategic breakthroughs have been recorded along more than a thousand kilometers of the line of contact, which further increases the price of each offensive for Russia.
European assessments of losses undermine Moscow's claims of the inevitability of its victory and may weaken the Kremlin's position in negotiations. Drone dominance on the battlefield remains a key factor.
"The trajectory of Kremlin losses could weaken Putin's hand at the negotiating table in coming months, according to people familiar with the assessments, who spoke on condition of anonymity," the publication notes.
Currently, according to Latvian intelligence services, drones account for up to 70–80% of those killed and wounded. Russia has so far failed to find an effective response to this threat.
Almost immediately after taking office, Mykhailo Fedorov said that one of Ukraine's strategic goals in the war is to inflict losses on Russia at a level of 50,000 troops per month. Ukraine has now already come close to this figure.
Earlier, British intelligence released new data on the scale of Russian army losses in the war against Ukraine. The figures indicate a sharp rise in human losses amid active Russian offensives in late 2025.
