Putin prepares for war with NATO, German intelligence reveals possible timeline
Photo: Russian president Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
A new report from Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service and the Bundeswehr says the Russian authorities are most likely preparing for a large-scale war against NATO, reports Bild.
The report states that Russian leader Vladimir Putin perceives relations with the West as a systemic conflict and is ready to use force to achieve his goals.
By the end of the decade, Russia may be fully prepared for a "large-scale conventional war."
According to an assessment by the Lithuanian intelligence service VSD, the Kremlin currently lacks the capability to attack the entire Alliance. However, the Russians may "test NATO" with a small military operation against one or several bloc countries, thereby determining how seriously the Alliance takes its commitments.
According to the report, despite the concentration of Russian troops in Ukraine, the Russian Air Force and Navy remain combat-capable. Once the war in Ukraine ends, Russian units could be quickly redeployed to the borders with the Baltic states. The report notes that "Russian losses are being replenished," and the country’s defense industry is producing more than what is needed for the current conflict.
Russia's expenditures are increasing at a record pace now, and in 2025, they will reach about 120 billion euros, which amounts to more than 6% of GDP. Compared to 2021, Russia’s military budget has quadrupled. According to the Kremlin's plans, the size of the army is to increase to 1.5 million personnel, while the volume of weapons and equipment on NATO’s border is expected to grow by 30-50%.
Risk of war between Russia and NATO
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, relations between the Kremlin and NATO remain tense. The Russian authorities periodically threaten Alliance countries, using nuclear rhetoric and conducting demonstrative military exercises near NATO borders.
Western partners continue to support Ukraine, supplying weapons and strengthening sanctions against Russia.
Last year, Estonian intelligence stated that Russia was actively preparing for a new military conflict, which could include a confrontation with NATO. Meanwhile, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius also acknowledged the possibility of a war between Russia and NATO and urged allies to be prepared for potential threats.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated recently that Russia could launch a new attack within a few years. In his opinion, Lithuania has four to five years to prepare.
