Putin counts on exhausting Ukraine's Armed Forces and Western withdrawal of support - ISW
Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Russian leader Vladimir Putin believes that Russia is winning and will outlast the resolve of Kyiv and Western countries. Politicians in Western nations must continue supporting Ukraine and work toward ensuring Russia's defeat in the war, the report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates.
The ISW suggests that Putin is unlikely to agree to a lesser deal unless Ukraine's Armed Forces inflict further significant defeats on Russia on the battlefield and demonstrate to him that he cannot achieve victory through force.
The ISW recalled that during the online speech on December 19, Putin claimed that Russia has the highest combat readiness in the world and that its defense industry is producing everything needed for the Russian army. He claimed that the battlefield situation is shifting significantly in Russia's favor and that its forces are advancing across the entire front line in Ukraine.
Putin boasted that Russian troops are advancing not by "100, 200, or 300 meters" but by square kilometers, progressing toward the objectives he set for the war.
"Russian forces' rate of advance in Kursk Oblast and Ukraine has recently slowed, however, Putin's rhetoric notwithstanding. ISW assesses that Russian forces advanced at a rate of roughly 27.96 square kilometers per day in November 2024 but have only advanced at a rate of roughly 17.1 square kilometers per day between December 1 and December 18," the report states.
ISW analysts believe that Putin's formulated theory of victory involves gradual and creeping advances by Russian forces indefinitely. According to the Russian president's logic, this would prevent Ukraine from conducting successful, operationally significant counteroffensive actions against Russian troops and allow Russia to win the war of attrition and willpower against the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The institute's analysts argue that this theory of victory is based on Putin's assumptions that Russia can outlast and overcome Western security assistance, Ukraine's efforts to staff and equip its armed forces, and the West's willingness to continue supporting Ukraine.
"Western decision-makers can invalidate these assumptions and compel Putin to negotiate on bases acceptable to the United States, Ukraine, and Europe by proving their will to continue supporting Ukraine and enabling Ukrainian forces to inflict significant battlefield setbacks on Russia," the ISW report indicates.
Putin's online speech and Russian losses
On Thursday, December 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual online speech, during which he answered questions from Russian citizens.
At the conference, Putin urged Western countries to deploy air defense systems in Kyiv and try to intercept Russia's Oreshnik ballistic missile, which he claimed is impossible to shoot down.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emotionally responded to this suggestion from the Russian leader.
Meanwhile, Russia's army losses in the war against Ukraine have reached 770,000 soldiers. In just the past day, 2,200 Russian servicemen were killed on the front lines.
