Putin could abandon plans to capture Pokrovsk and assign army different task - ISW

The report highlights the fact that Putin is increasingly describing the progress of Russian troops in terms of square kilometers, rather than focusing on capturing specific settlements, as he did in the past.

In light of this, the Institute suggests that Putin has likely instructed the Russian military command to delay the capture of Pokrovsk in favor of advancing through open fields and small settlements. According to geolocation imagery held by the ISW, Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

"Seizing the remainder of the Donetsk region is one of Putin's long-standing objectives in Ukraine, and Putin would likely highlight Russian advances up to the boundary to make outsized claims about Russian successes in Ukraine for both foreign and domestic audiences," the report states.

The ISW is also convinced that an offensive operation against well-defended cities could slow the pace of the Russian advance at a critical moment in the Kremlin's efforts to project the inevitability of a Russian military victory on the world stage.

Russia's advance in the Pokrovsk direction

According to geolocation maps, in recent days, Russian troops have advanced southward within the eastern part of Novovasylivka (southwest of Pokrovsk). One Russian military blogger reported that Russian forces have moved north of Novovasylivka towards Solone and Vovkove, and are advancing in the direction of Kotlyne.

Another Kremlin-linked Russian blogger claimed that Russian forces have focused their attacks on Novotroitske (east of Novovasylivka) and Dachenske (south of Pokrovsk), forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat to the Lysivka-Pishchane line (southeast-south of Pokrovsk).

The blogger also stated that Russian forces are advancing from Pustynka and Pushkine (both south of Pokrovsk) towards Ukrainka (southwest of Pushkine).

Decline in the combat effectiveness of the Russian army

The pace of the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk may slow down due to a decline in the combat effectiveness of Russian troops.

Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets suggested that units of the Russian 90th Tank Division have suffered significant personnel losses and are struggling to make further advances south of Pokrovsk and north of Kurakhove due to decreased combat readiness.

The 90th Tank Division took part in the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024 and has since remained engaged in various sectors of the Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions.

Recently, an officer from a Ukrainian brigade calculated that Russian forces lost nearly 3,000 personnel in the Pokrovsk direction in just two weeks in mid-December 2024, and the 90th Tank Division has likely suffered significant personnel losses in the Pokrovsk direction and other areas where it had previously operated.

"ISW recently observed geolocated footage showing Russian forces conducting a motorized assault with civilian vehicles east of Ukrainka - within the 90th Tank Division's AoR - suggesting that the division may also be struggling to replace armored vehicle losses while engaged in frontline combat," the Institute for the Study of War notes.

Putin's statements and plans, and the situation at the front

During his direct line communication with Russians on December 19, Putin stated that Russian troops are advancing in square kilometers and are close to achieving the war objectives set.

The ISW does not rule out the possibility that Putin is counting on exhausting the Ukrainian Armed Forces and prompting Western countries to stop supporting Ukraine's defense capabilities.

The Pokrovsk direction remains the most intense section of the front line in the Russian-Ukrainian war.