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Putin believes in Russia's victory and vigorously strives to destroy Ukraine

Putin believes in Russia's victory and vigorously strives to destroy Ukraine Russian President Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)

Putin's denial of any peaceful negotiations with Ukraine signals his confidence in Russia's victory through creeping occupation, exhaustion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and cessation of Western aid, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report analyzes statements made by Vladimir Putin during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit on Thursday, July 4th.

Specifically, Putin rejected Russia's participation in any meaningful ceasefire negotiations. Instead, he demanded Ukraine's irreversible demilitarization as a precondition for any ceasefire agreement. Thus, Putin effectively demands Ukraine's capitulation before considering any cessation of hostilities.

ISW noted that rather than feigning interest in negotiations, Putin outright dismissed any negotiation process regarding a ceasefire.

"Putin has repeatedly portrayed the West as his envisioned negotiating partner in a ceasefire agreement in order to prompt Western concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty, but Putin notably dismissed all intermediary parties as possible mediators for an agreement between Ukraine and Russia," the report states.

Additionally, ISW notes that Putin rejected the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada as a possible contact for negotiations, despite previously asserting it as the sole legitimate Ukrainian body with which Russia could negotiate.

Putin labeled all Ukrainian authorities as illegitimate or unsuitable for negotiations and rejected the idea of third-party involvement in talks, effectively dismissing any realistic process for meaningful ceasefire negotiations. Instead, the report underscores his insistence on Ukraine's compliance with ceasefire terms.

Putin's demand for Ukraine's agreement to irreversible demilitarization measures underscores his assertion that Russia cannot allow Ukrainian forces to use a ceasefire to replenish their strength.

ISW analysts believe Putin will use the respite to regenerate and expand his forces, further mobilizing his defense-industrial base for future aggression aimed at the destruction of the Ukrainian State'.

"Putin's rejection of any ceasefire agreement short of Ukrainian capitulation further illustrates that he is confident in his assessment that Russia can pursue victory by continuing creeping advances in Ukraine, outlasting Western support for Ukraine, and winning a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces," the ISW report concludes.

Peaceful cessation of war

Recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered aid to Putin in ending the full-scale war in Ukraine, but the Turkish leader was turned down.

Meanwhile, Ukraine plans to develop a clear peace plan to conclude the war by the end of the year. President Zelenskyy has outlined the only possible format for negotiations with Putin.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock noted that Russia has become the biggest threat to Europe's security.