Patriot production in Ukraine: What can be built and when
Patriot air defense system launcher (photo: Getty Images)
A full production cycle for Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine is currently considered highly unrealistic, making a phased approach with gradually increasing localization the most practical option, Ihor Fedirko, executive director of the Ukrainian Council of Defence Industry, told RBC-Ukraine.
Phased approach and missile assembly
According to Fedirko, the Patriot system consists of many complex elements, including a radar, command posts, launchers, communication systems, software, and several types of missiles. Building the entire system from scratch would require access to highly sensitive technologies and the certification of dozens of production lines.
Therefore, at the initial stage, Ukraine will follow a more realistic plan:
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First step: maintenance, repair, and production of individual simple components, containers, and equipment.
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Second step: final assembly and testing of interceptor missiles using imported components.
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Third step: gradual expansion of localization and increasing the share of domestically produced parts.
Ihor Fedirko stressed that the PAC-2 missile family (manufactured by Raytheon) and PAC-3 (produced by Lockheed Martin) have completely different supply chains. As a result, obtaining a license for one type of missile will not automatically allow the assembly of the other, meaning production will initially focus on only one specific type of interceptor.
Realistic timeline for launching production lines
A political decision to grant a license is only the first step. It must be followed by intergovernmental agreements, factory audits, equipment preparation, and personnel training, Fedirko said. Under the most favorable conditions, the timeline would look as follows:
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1–2 years to launch individual operations, repair work, or missile assembly using ready-made imported modules.
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2–3 years to achieve stable serial production.
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4–7 years to transition to deep localization, including manufacturing a significant share of components within Ukraine.
For comparison, the decision to expand GEM-T production in Germany was made in 2024. Construction of the dedicated facility took about two years, while production and the first deliveries are scheduled for late 2026 to early 2027. And this is being done by a company that has worked with Patriot for decades. There is no reason to expect that a license will allow Ukraine to independently produce Patriot missiles within just a few months. But if the process begins now, it will give Ukraine a long-term capability that even many NATO countries do not have today, Fedirko said.
Fedirko also believes that future Patriot production in Ukraine will become one of Russia's main targets, but the country's defense industry already has experience operating under constant missile attacks.
In July, US President Donald Trump said during a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the United States would allow Ukraine to produce Patriot systems.
