Palianytsia missile drone and ballistics: What is known about Ukraine's secret weapon, and can it reach Moscow

Contents

• Palianytsia for Russians: What is known about the missile drone
• Own ballistic missile: What it might mean
• Why Ukraine needs its own ballistic missiles and how soon they will come into play

Palianytsia for Russians: What is known about the missile drone

On August 24, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the debut of the latest Palianytsia missile drone during Independence Day celebrations, noting that it had already seen combat. "Today, the first and successful combat use of our new weapon took place. A completely new class of weapon—the Ukrainian Palianytsia missile drone. This is our new method of retaliation against the aggressor," he said.

He added that this approach is necessary while partners delay providing long-range solutions like the Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles with a 300 km range, which are still prohibited from being used against targets in Russia.

Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister for Strategic Industries, clarified that Palianytsia struck an enemy target in occupied territory. He also mentioned that the characteristics of the device classify it as both a drone and a missile.

Around the same time, a video of the missile drone's test appeared online. Journalist Serhii Auslender, without revealing his sources, reported that the hybrid weapon has a 50 kg warhead, a speed of 500 km/h, and a range of up to 500 km.

However, the missile drone in this video differs from the official images shown in the video by the United24 presidential initiative. There is a difference in the aerodynamic design and the launch method—from a ground platform rather than an independent takeoff. The only similarity is that both projects feature a turbojet engine, as noted by Defense Express.

The development of Palianytsia took a year and a half. In an interview with the Associated Press, Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov stated that the cost of the product is less than $1 million, and efforts are underway to further reduce production costs. The remaining characteristics are classified. However, judging by the United24 video, which shows a map of Russian airfields within its reach, the range is at least 750 km. At the same time, the title card directly states a range of 600 km.

Valerii Romanenko, a leading researcher at the National Aviation University (NAU) and an aviation expert, emphasizes that there is practically no official data on Palianytsia provided by officials. Even the geometric dimensions are not available, so he suggests drawing conclusions based on its appearance compared to the sizes of the Shahed and Storm Shadow.

"The object is no smaller than the first and no larger than the second. Depending on this, the characteristics can be adjusted, considering that range and warhead size can increase or decrease in relation to one another," he explained in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

If we base our assumptions on the size of the Shahed, the Ukrainian missile drone might have a speed of about 400 km/h (twice that of the Iranian drone) and a range of 400-500 km. The figure of 500 km is the maximum, provided the wing thickness allows for additional fuel storage. The released schematic shows upward-curved wing tips, indicating that the missile drone is not tactical but designed for long-range. "That’s why I estimate the range at about 400 to 500 km," the expert explains.

If it is closer in size to the Storm Shadow (with a length of 5.1 meters), the characteristics would be higher: a speed of up to 500 km/h, a more powerful engine, and a range of 650-700 km. However, the engine on the Storm Shadow is very expensive, and simpler components are used for unmanned systems.

"The maximum range of the Storm Shadow is 500 km, and it’s unlikely that Palianytsia exceeds that by much. The warhead could weigh between 250-300 kg, up to 400 kg in the size of the British cruise missile," Romanenko believes.

It’s not accurate to say that Palianytsia has no analogs. According to him, there are similar jet-powered drone designs like the UJ-25 Skyline, Ruta by Destinus, the Iranian Shahed 238, and others. "When people say 'there are no analogs,' it’s nonsense because military designers worldwide often think along parallel lines," the expert added.

Own ballistic missile: What it might mean

At a press conference on Tuesday, Zelenskyy unexpectedly spoke about a Ukrainian-made ballistic missile.

"There was a successful test of the first Ukrainian ballistic missile. And I congratulate our defense-industrial complex on this," he said.

There is even less information about the ballistic missile. However, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of the President's Office, mentioned a possible range. "600-700 km, as the president said. But I think these are questions we will see answered when they effectively work," he noted.

It's important to highlight that the president did not mention the missile's range. However, a year ago, he spoke about a successful test of a long-range weapon with a range of 700 km. In November 2023, it became known that this was a missile, though it’s unclear whether it was cruise or ballistic.

Given the stated range, potential targets include Moscow, the Engels airfield near Saratov, the Black Sea Fleet base in Novorossiysk, and many other sites, according to Defense Express.

Unlike a cruise missile, a ballistic missile in its terminal phase attacks with high speed and nearly vertically, leaving little chance for interception. The power, speed, and accuracy of ballistic missiles have made them one of the main types of precision weapons in Russia. Critical targets on the front and in Ukrainian rear areas are often struck by Iskander-M missiles. These have a warhead of almost 500 kg, an attack speed of 2100 m/s, and a range of 400-500 km.

Ukraine does not currently have such capabilities. The new missile can be seen as a response to the Iskander, but having its own ballistic missile is essential in any case, notes Valerii Romanenko. According to him, the foundation for creating it exists, as projects like Sapsan for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Hrim-2 for export were developed.

Essentially, they are the same missile. The difference is that the Sapsan has a caliber of 900 mm and a declared range of 500+ km, while the Hrim-2 has a caliber of 600 mm and a range of up to 270 km, respectively. "If you look at the image of the Hrim-2, it seems very similar to the American Pershing II (which was decommissioned by the US Army in the late 1980s)," he says.

Photo: Ukraine has experience in developing ballistic missiles with the Sapsan and Hrim-2 projects; in the photo, the OTRK at the 2018 parade (wikimedia.org VoidWanderer)

The task is entirely feasible considering Ukraine's experience in developing space rockets. For ballistic missiles, a standard inertial guidance system can be used, and there is experience in manufacturing casings. Issues with the warhead are likely manageable as well. The main problem is the engine.

According to Romanenko, the Pivdenne Design Office in Dnipro specialized in liquid-fuel engines, which are used for strategic ballistic missiles launched from underground silos and require refueling time. "But missiles for ground forces during combat operations are solid-fuel and can be prepared for launch within minutes. And we haven't developed such engines," notes the expert.

If Ukraine can solve the problem with the solid-fuel engine, it will be able to create a range of ballistic missiles with the required range.

"Our task is to reach the Volga. It has a cascade of power plants, and then it will be a matter of who drives whom into a corner. If we strike a few power plants, 40% of Russian territory will clearly be without electricity,' said Romanenko.

So how has Ukraine achieved results in its ballistic program? The War Zone analyst Joseph Trevithick suggests three possible options for what the Ukrainian-produced missile might represent:

1. An upgraded operational-tactical complex Hrim-2. Engine tests were conducted in 2018, and a 10-wheeled transport-launcher for two missiles was showcased at the parade in Kyiv that same year.

2. A guided large-caliber rocket artillery shell. For example, the US refers to artillery rockets with a range of up to 300 km as short-range ballistic missiles. Vilkha-M fits this definition.

3. A mysterious missile developed 'from scratch.' In 2023, there were reports of a new missile with a range of up to 1000 km, but no further details have emerged since then.

According to Romanenko, Vilkha-M is not suitable because the missile is unguided and has a range of 100 km. There is a guided variant with terminal guidance, but its range is at most 140 km, and further guidance is not possible. The 'mysterious missile' is also unlikely since ballistic missile development requires years of research and testing.

"Most likely, all our projects are based on previously known ones. The scope narrows down, and in my opinion, it is very connected to Sapsan," he believes.

Military-political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko from the Information Resistance group believes that the missile development was based on the Hrim-2 project, which, according to him, was a step away from realization.

"It is quite possible that this missile now has a completely different name and characteristics, but the experience from developing this missile was used in this new modification... The question is what characteristics it has and how we will use it," he said in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.

If they developed it based on Hrim-2, then they could have extended the range to 500 km—a standard figure for operational-tactical level ballistic missiles. According to him, this would allow striking targets up to, conditionally, the distance to Moscow and even within Moscow itself. He also believes that Ukraine might already be conducting individual tests in combat conditions.

Why Ukraine needs its own ballistic missiles and how soon they will come into play

It is worth noting that Ukraine's military is already equipped with ballistic missiles, such as the Soviet-era Tochka-U with a range of up to 120 km, and the American ATACMS with a range of up to 300 km. However, the US has prohibited the use of ATACMS against Russian territory.

Regarding its own developments, work on the Sapsan project, with a range of over 500 km and a warhead of about 500 kg, began in the 2000s. Completion was delayed due to a lack of funding, and it was abruptly halted in 2013. The project was revived under the export name Hrim-2, and in 2016, Ukraine began developing an operational-tactical missile complex for Saudi Arabia. Five years later, the first battery was about 70% to 80% complete.

Since 2022, information about the Sapsan/Hrim-2 project has decreased. Although Russia has repeatedly claimed to have intercepted Hrim missiles over occupied Crimea. Recently, prominent volunteer Taras Chmut stated that Ukraine is preparing three different modifications of the Sapsan.

Reacting to the massive energy infrastructure attack on August 26, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov mentioned that long-range capabilities are needed for victory. "Ukraine is preparing its responses. With domestically produced weapons," he said.

Such a response could be Ukraine’s own ballistic missiles, which would enhance the success and capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This weapon would provide a new option for long-range strikes regardless of Western partners' positions; it would allow for breaching enemy air defenses, targeting fortified positions, including bridges; and in combination with other missiles and drones—conducting combined attacks to achieve broader military objectives, as noted by The War Zone.

The question is whether Ukraine can achieve production at the required scale. According to President Zelenskyy, the missile program is too expensive; the government has allocated all it can, and there is no money in the budget for it. Therefore, funding is being sought from partner countries.

Developing a ballistic missile indeed requires billions of dollars, emphasizes Valerii Romanenko. He suggests that the process could be accelerated by receiving the design documentation of an existing missile from Western partners.

"If we were indeed given something related to Pershing II—this is just my assumption—and if experimental launches have been conducted, then design and engineering work is nearing completion. That is, the Ukrainian missile is already flying and needs final adjustments. But immediately, the question arises: where to manufacture it? The plant in Dnipro is under constant shelling. It could be produced abroad, but that requires significant money and a separate high-tech production facility. We do not have such funds, and I wouldn't hold my breath that our ballistic missiles will soon be produced in the necessary quantities to strike at the Russians," the expert explained.

And judging by the fact that the missile drone Palianytsia has undergone combat testing, there are much higher chances of seeing it in action. "It is cheaper, with a simpler design and many components can be procured and assembled at medium-sized enterprises," he added.

However, the announcement of the first Ukrainian ballistic missile offers hope that the entire missile program is moving forward. It is possible that the time is not far off when the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have the full "gentleman’s set" from cruise missiles to ballistic ones. Without them, it will be extremely difficult to become one of the strongest armies in the world.

Sources: statements from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, advisor to the head of the Office of the President Mykhailo Podolyak, Ukrainian officials, materials from specialized resources such as The War Zone and Defense Express, and comments from aviation expert Valerii Romanenko.