Nordics gear up for potential war with Russia: Key scenarios named
File photo: Scandinavian countries are preparing for war with Russia (Getty Images)
There has long been a consensus in the Nordic countries regarding defense preparedness. This refers to Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark, according to the RBC-Ukraine article Europe's risk zone: Which countries are prepared to deter Russian aggression.
As noted by Finnish political expert and former member of the Finnish Parliament Risto Penttilä, Finland’s defense strategy is based on historical experience. Throughout the Cold War, the country served as a semi-independent buffer between the USSR and NATO.
"After the end of the Cold War, the rest of Europe started disarming; Finland actually started arming. So, we developed our defenses in the 1990s, procured an F-18 Hornet from the United States, and bought hundreds and hundreds of tanks from the old East Germany," the expert told RBC-Ukraine.
According to him, the differences stem more from how exactly to prepare for war.
"Left-leaning parties tend to emphasize a whole-of-society approach and resilience, while center-right parties may place more focus on the defense industry and combat readiness," the source explains.
He notes that following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, scenarios were developed in Northern Europe in 2015–2016 in which Russia would attempt to seize the island of Gotland in Sweden, Svalbard in Norway, and the Åland Islands in Finland. However, with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, these scenarios have changed somewhat.
"Scenarios that military planners and the media discuss are still sort of the Narva option, or the Suvalki between Lithuania and Poland. And then, thirdly, Spitsbergen up in the Arctic, the islands where the Russians and Norwegians both have industrial mining," Penttiä adds.
Sweden is currently rebuilding its total defense system. In 2017, the country reinstated partial military conscription. The plan is to enlist up to 10,000 conscripts annually by 2030 and 12,000 in the years 2032–2035.
However, according to Penttiä's assessment, it is not very effective.
Norway has also adopted a similar course toward total defense. In 2026, it will conduct the largest civil-military exercises since the Cold War. Businesses, municipalities, and the civilian population have been involved in these exercises.
"In terms of whole society preparedness, I think Finland is better off in terms of having a very large reserve, about 800,000 trained people. And Sweden doesn't have that, but Sweden has a very strong defense industry," the expert notes.
Europe prepares for war
After the threat from Moscow toward Europe began to grow, particularly in light of drone incidents in EU countries, NATO allies have stepped up measures to strengthen defense and prepare for potential war scenarios.
Against this backdrop, Alliance member states are increasing their defense budgets, in some cases to around 5% of GDP, while simultaneously expanding the capabilities of their own defense-industrial complexes.
Washington’s rhetoric adds even more urgency. US President Donald Trump is clearly telling European allies that it is time to learn to defend themselves.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that Russia was preparing for a major war on the European continent to be ready to launch military operations in 2029 or 2030.
Meanwhile, Sweden does not rule out that Russia may seize one of the Baltic Sea islands in the near future, and thus test how NATO would respond to the provocation.
