No reason to celebrate: Russia failed to meet any war goals in Ukraine this year – ISW

It is noted that the resistance of the Defense Forces, with support from Western countries, prevented Russian troops from achieving any of their set goals in Ukraine over the past year. This deprived Russian President Vladimir Putin of significant military successes that he could have used for the Victory Day celebrations.

The ISW pointed out that Putin did not discuss the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine during the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 8 and 9, but stated that all of Russia supports the Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine.

According to experts, Russian forces have not captured any major cities in Ukraine since taking Avdiivka in February 2024. The only medium-sized settlement captured by the Russian army in Ukraine since December 2024 is the town of Velyka Novosilka, which had a population of 5,000 before the war.

"Ukrainian sources previously reported that Russian forces were trying to seize Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and the remaining area of Luhansk Oblast and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by Victory Day on May 9. Russian forces did not accomplish any of those objectives, and have in fact been trying to seize Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk for roughly a year," the report states.

The ISW noted that long-range strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and better-integrated tactical operations using drones, combined with defensive operations and counterattacks, have slowed down, and in some cases stopped, Russia's offensive operations. The report emphasizes that all of this has been made possible by Western military support.

"Ukraine’s successful integration of Ukrainian drone innovators and operators with ground forces appears to have stalled Russia’s offensive against Pokrovsk and Toretsk in 2024 and early 2025. Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian ammunition depots, defense industry facilities, and oil and gas infrastructure have at times compromised Russia’s ability to supply frontline units and have compounded the rising costs of Russia’s war against Ukraine," the report says.

The Institute for the Study of War also pointed out that over the past year, Ukrainian forces have deliberately exploited other Russian vulnerabilities.

In particular, the Defense Forces provoked a shortage of Russian operational reserves by launching an invasion into Kursk region in August 2024, forcing Russian forces to redeploy troops from other front-line areas to defend against this invasion.

Situation on the front

The second day of the "ceasefire" declared by Putin from May 8 to 11 on the front line was very difficult. Russian invaders significantly increased the number of combat engagements and conducted 22 airstrikes.

According to ISW maps, Russian forces have advanced in Kursk region and are attempting to pressure the Ukrainian Armed Forces on five fronts.

At the same time, the Defense Forces liberated over 200 hectares of forest in the northern part of Kharkiv region from the invaders.