No frontline collapse due to US military aid pause, yet risks remain for Ukraine - ISW
Illustrative photo: US military aid halt poses challenges on the frontline (Getty Images)
The frontline of the war in Ukraine is not at immediate risk of collapse due to the suspension of US military aid. However, the consequences of the pause will become more acute over time, according to the report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Two US officials told ABC News that about 90% of the weapons the United States committed to supplying Ukraine under the previous Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) defense support packages have already arrived in the country. These include ammunition and anti-tank systems.
According to the report, the remaining 10% of weapons under PDA are expected to arrive in Ukraine by August 2025. Private contracts for the supply of weapons between Ukraine and US companies, many of which Kyiv has already paid for, will likely facilitate at least a small flow of weapons to Ukraine "for at least the next several years."
According to Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian defense publication Defense Express, the United States supplies about 30% of the weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, European partners supply another 30%, and the remaining 40% is produced by Ukraine's defense industry.
The ISW noted that Ukraine will continue to fight with the weapons it currently possesses, those provided by European partners, and the weapons it produces domestically.
"The Trump administration's aid pause will detrimentally impact Ukraine's ability to defend itself and pursue offensive operations at its current rate, but it will not collapse the front entirely in the coming months," states the report.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War also noted that Russian forces are likely to take advantage of the shortage of Ukrainian equipment, as they did during the previous suspension of U.S. military aid in early 2024.
"Russian forces will likely attempt to take advantage of the pause in US aid in order to make further gains in eastern and southern Ukraine in order to justify their territorial claims to the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts," according to the information source.
US military aid suspension
On Friday, February 28, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Washington. During his meeting with US President Donald Trump, the leaders planned to sign an agreed text of a deal on the control of Ukraine's mineral resources.
However, during talks with the presence of the press, an emotional exchange occurred between Zelenskyy, Trump, and US Vice President JD Vance. The Ukrainian leader left the White House early, and the signing of the agreement did not take place.
On March 4, Trump suspended all US military aid to Ukraine, including weapons allocated by the Biden administration.
Vance stated that official Kyiv must return to the negotiation table, as it is impossible to continue the war indefinitely.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said that the suspension of the mineral resources agreement is a temporary measure. First, the US and Ukraine must sign the agreement on mineral resources.
Zelenskyy has already expressed his willingness to return to peace negotiations regarding Ukraine.
