Night without Shaheds: Why Russia pauses UAV strikes and weather role

What we know about drone attacks

Since the beginning of autumn, Russia has significantly increased the number of drone attacks on Ukrainian territory. According to media reports, the number of drones launched by Russia this autumn exceeded 6,000. This figure is four times higher than the number of drones launched in autumn 2023.

Since December 1 of this year, Russia has launched more than 480 drones at Ukrainian territory. However, on the night of December 9 to 10, the Russians did not attack Ukraine with kamikaze drones.

Why Russia could pause drone attacks

According to Oleksii Hetman, a military expert and a retired major of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia will continue to carry out such air attacks. However, it is important to consider the preparation time for these attacks, as the drones launched recently were prepared about two weeks in advance. Hetman said this is related to the need for a program for where and when to launch the drones.

"So everything is prepared. I think that they (Russians - ed.) simply ran out of previous plans. So, there might be a pause (in Shahed drone attacks - ed.) between what was planned and what is currently being prepared. There is no need to search for any conspiracy here. Previous military orders have ended, and new ones are being prepared," Hetman said.

The expert believes that Russia might launch Shahed UAVs again tonight. However, there is also a possibility that the pause could be extended. One reason for this might be the Russians' desire to "accumulate" Shahed drones.

"It is possible that they are preparing a missile strike and want to execute it along with a large number of drones. But again, this is just a guess. Most likely, this pause is due to the fact that they are still preparing the next phase and will do what they've been doing," Hetman emphasized.

What impacts Russia's decision

Meanwhile, aviation expert Konstantin Kryvolap believes that there might be several reasons for such a pause.

In his opinion, the Russians might be busy "improving" the situation with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Therefore, Russia might not be focused on shelling Ukraine right now.

According to the expert, the second reason could be the bad weather. Over the past few days, meteorologists have warned of significant fog and icing, which could affect the range and trajectory of Shahed UAVs.

"The reason might be that we hit some warehouses and 'buried' the Shaheds in the ground, blowing them up. Anything could be possible. It is very hard to predict exactly. But the main factors are the weather and the physical shortage of these Shaheds," Kryvolap said.

The expert believes that Russia currently has no issues with producing new Shaheds. However, Ukrainian forces might have struck the enemy's logistics.

"After all, we are hitting the Kursk region, the Voronezh region. But mainly, it is the Khaliino airfield from which they launch many Shaheds at Ukraine. Because it's quite far for them from Primorsk-Akhtarsk... So, if we leave conspiracy aside, there are no direct dependencies here," Kryvolap emphasized.

According to the expert, the main reason for the pause in Shahed attacks during the night, with a 70-80% probability, is still the weather factor.

Drone attacks on Ukraine

Russia has significantly increased drone attacks on Ukrainian territory this autumn. Over the past few months, the enemy has been launching dozens of Shahed UAVs almost every night.

Earlier, we wrote about why Russia paused missile attacks on Ukraine, choosing to strike with drones every night.

Yesterday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that over the past week, Russia used nearly 500 guided aerial bombs, more than 400 attack drones, and almost 20 missiles of various types against Ukraine.