More than all losses since World War II - The Economist calculated Russia's casualties
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According to calculations by the British The Economist, between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian military personnel have been "out of action" in Russia's war against Ukraine. The calculations are based on leaked documents from the US Department of Defense.
The media released four charts.
The first describes estimates from official and unofficial sources over a certain period. The latest data, published on July 5 by Mediazona and Meduza, two independent Russian media outlets, indicate that the number of Russian dead has exceeded 100,000, with figures as of June 21 ranging from 106,000 to 140,000. A significant portion of their analysis is based on inheritance records and obituaries on social media and other sources. However, since February 6, the data they obtained are based on trends due to their access to official records being disrupted, writes The Economist.
Overall, these data are consistent with other sources: French officials recently cited a total of 150,000 by May, and BBC Russia estimates that at least 113,000 Russians had died by early June.
Estimates by Mediazona and Meduza can also be shown by weeks (see chart 2). The data shows a noticeable increase in Russian losses during Ukraine's counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 and following the battles for Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar.
This data does not include Ukrainians recruited by Russia in the occupied territories. Also not considered are Russian soldiers who were severely injured and cannot return to combat.
Approximate calculations by The Economist, based on leaked documents from the US Department of Defense, suggest that, likely, for every soldier killed in action, there are approximately three to four wounded Russian soldiers. The media concluded that from 462,000 to 728,000 Russian soldiers were "out of action" by mid-June — more than the estimated number of Russian invasion forces in February 2022. French and British officials believe that about 500,000 Russians were severely wounded or killed by early May, according to the article.
The third chart shows the impact of these losses on Russia's demographics. The greatest losses were among people aged 35 to 39, 27,000 of whom were estimated to have been killed from February 2022 to June 2024. The latest estimates suggest that approximately 2% of all Russian men aged 20 to 50 may have been either killed or severely injured in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.
The last chart puts the figures in historical context. Russia's losses in Ukraine since 2022 exceed the number of losses in all its wars since World War II combined. Despite this, Western officials and analysts suggest that significant losses are unlikely to affect Russia's manpower supply in the short and medium term.
It should be noted that according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy has lost about 549,840 soldiers since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
