Lithuanian intel names timeline for Russia’s readiness for war with NATO
Illustrative photo: Russia is preparing for a major war with NATO (Getty Images)
Russia is creating new military units near NATO borders and preparing for a possible large-scale clash with the Alliance within the next six years, Reuters reports.
Intelligence forecasts
According to the agency, Lithuanian intelligence services say that Moscow is actively implementing the experience gained in the war against Ukraine to reform its armed forces.
After the end of hostilities, the Russian army is expected to become significantly larger and more modernized.
"Russia would likely create not only a 30-50 percent larger army than it had before the war but also a relatively modern one. Strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition would be fully restored. Russia would be ready for a conventional military conflict with NATO," the report says.
Analysts emphasize that if the economy continues to function steadily and sanctions are circumvented, the Kremlin will achieve full readiness for a "wide-scale military conflict" within six years.
China’s role and hybrid threats
An important factor in Russia’s strengthening has been assistance from China, which has allowed the Russian defense industry to reduce its dependence on Western technologies.
In addition to expanding its regular forces, Moscow is increasing hybrid pressure on Europe, including diversion and sabotage operations.
"Russian sabotage in Europe is becoming dangerous to human life," the authors of the document emphasize, mentioning operations involving arson and exploding parcels allegedly linked to Russia’s GRU.
Despite this, incidents involving damage to underwater communications in the Baltic Sea are currently considered unintentional by Lithuanian intelligence, although the region remains on heightened alert.
Is Russia preparing for a major war
Western intelligence agencies and analysts had previously warned about Russia’s militarization. In particular, before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin made similar statements denying aggressive intentions — something that is now also being observed regarding the Baltic states.
In addition, it has been reported that Russia has already begun the first phase of preparations for the strategic deployment of troops near the EU’s borders. According to the latest data, the Kremlin has significantly shortened the timeframe for preparing for a potential global conflict, shifting the economy onto a war footing.
Europe has also recently modeled a potential Russian attack on Lithuania. The results of the simulation showed that a key deterrence factor is the speed of NATO allies’ response and the readiness of local forces to withstand the initial strike.
