Kyiv wants to push India to take more neutral stance - AP

Official statements from both sides indicated that the visit would focus on strengthening economic ties and cooperation in defense, science, and technology.

However, analysts suggest that this visit might also be an attempt to push India toward a more neutral stance on Russia's war against Ukraine, according to the AP.

They particularly point to Modi's trip to Russia on July 8-9, which coincided with Russian missile strikes on the Okhmatdyt hospital, drawing sharp criticism from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian leader called Modi's meeting with Putin a great disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts after the Indian leader was seen embracing Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Modi's trip to Ukraine indicates that India is trying to balance the situation after being accused of leaning towards Russia, said K C Singh, a strategic affairs expert and former diplomat.

Despite Western pressure, New Delhi has refrained from condemning Russia's invasion or voting against it in UN resolutions. India has avoided taking sides and has called for Ukraine and Russia to resolve the conflict through dialogue.

“Modi’s visit is designed to some extent to show that New Delhi’s strategic orientation remains non-alignment, and as such, to keep balance in its foreign policy,” said Derek Grossman, an Indo-Pacific analyst at the RAND Corporation.

Analysts believe Zelenskyy is unlikely to raise the topic of Modi's meeting with Putin, at least not publicly. However, Modi's visit to Moscow and the India-Russia relationship will be a strong undertone of his trip to Ukraine, even if not explicitly mentioned in public statements, added Chietigj Bajpaee, who researches South Asia at the Chatham House think tank.

India-Russia relationship

India and Russia have maintained strong ties since the Cold War, and New Delhi's significance as a key trading partner for Moscow has grown since the Kremlin deployed troops to Ukraine in February 2022.

India, along with China, has become a major purchaser of Russian oil following sanctions imposed by the US and its European allies.

Analysts viewed Modi's visit to Moscow as a reinforcement of their partnership, particularly given that Russia remains a crucial partner in trade and defense. Approximately 60% of India's military systems and equipment are of Russian origin, and New Delhi currently sources over 40% of its oil imports from Russia.

According to India's Ministry of External Affairs, trade between the two countries has also surged, reaching nearly $65 billion in the 2023-24 fiscal year.

India-Ukraine relationship

Bilateral trade between India and Ukraine is significantly lower, standing at around $3 billion before the invasion. However, Modi and Zelenskyy have remained in contact since then on the sidelines of global events, and Ukraine's Foreign Minister also visited New Delhi earlier this year.

India has also provided several shipments of humanitarian aid to Ukraine following the invasion.

How this visit will be perceived

For Modi, this trip is an opportunity to engage Zelenskyy and secure Indian interests there, push back against excessive Russian influence, and reassure the West, said Grossman.

However, while the visit may give the West some confidence, it will be clear that India continues to maintain closer ties with Moscow, and Modi's visit won't change that perception, said Bajpaee.

Modi is unlikely to use this visit to position India as a peacemaker in the conflict. Unlike China or Turkiye, India has not put forward a peace plan, for example.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin will be observing Modi’s visit, “but short of any statements that are highly critical of Russia, it is unlikely to be concerned,” Bajpaee said.

Modi has previously ruled out acting as a mediator to end Russia's war in Ukraine. However, New Delhi has agreed to convey messages between Zelenskyy and Putin.

The US has called Modi's visit to Ukraine important amidst Russia's destabilization of the global order.

Modi's reaction to Russia's shelling of Okhmatdyt

While in Moscow, the Indian Prime Minister told Putin that the death of innocent children during the war is deeply painful.