Kremlin changes nature of nuclear saber-rattling toward Western countries - ISW
The Kremlin starts to understand the ineffectiveness of nuclear threats directed at the West (photo: Getty Images)
Moscow is reassessing the effectiveness of its nuclear saber-rattling to influence political debates in Western countries regarding the authorization of Ukrainian forces to strike military targets within Russian territory using Western weaponry, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The report references an article in The Washington Post, which notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is beginning to recognize the diminishing effectiveness of nuclear threats among Western officials. In light of this, the dictator is reportedly crafting an ambiguous, more nuanced, and limited information response to any forthcoming agreement from the West allowing Ukrainian forces to use long-range weapons to strike targets in Russia.
According to an unnamed Russian official cited in the publication, Moscow has realized that nuclear threats do not scare anyone. A Russian academic closely linked to high-ranking diplomats also pointed out that Russia's partners in the Global South are quite dissatisfied with these nuclear threats.
The report indicates that the Institute for the Study of War cannot independently verify the claims made by The Washington Post. However, these reports align with various assessments by ISW regarding how the Kremlin uses nuclear saber-rattling to deter the West, and such messages do not indicate Russia's readiness to employ nuclear weapons.
"ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin's thinly veiled threats of nuclear confrontation are aimed at disrupting and delaying key decision points in Western political discussions about further military assistance to Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that Russia is very unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere," the report states.
Nuclear threats from Russia
Since the onset of the full-scale war, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
The CIA noted that the risk of a nuclear strike was significant in the fall of 2022 when Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked in the Kharkiv region.
Subsequently, CIA Director William Burns stated that Putin would regularly threaten Western countries with war, but such threats should not be feared.
American General David Petraeus is convinced that Russia will not resort to using even tactical nuclear weapons, let alone strategic ones.
