CIA Director urges West not to overreact to Russian nuclear threats

During a discussion with Richard Moore, the Chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), on September 7, Burns revealed that, according to CIA assessments, Russian authorities may have considered the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the fall of 2022. Burns also mentioned that he had communicated about this issue with Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergey Naryshkin.

The CIA’s assessment of Russia’s possible readiness to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine during the fall of 2022 coincided with heightened Russian rhetoric regarding nuclear confrontation, amidst successful Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. However, this rhetoric was likely part of a routine information operation intended to deter Western security aid to Ukraine, rather than an indicator of Russia’s readiness to deploy nuclear weapons.

The Kremlin has repeatedly issued veiled nuclear threats during key moments of Western political discussions about further military assistance to Ukraine, such as in the fall of 2022, to instill fear among decision-makers.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) continues to assess that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere. The Institute views the rhetoric as part of Kremlin efforts to induce self-restraint in the West and influence critical moments in Western political debates on supporting Ukraine.

Burns previously noted that there was a real risk of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine in 2022.

Burns and Moore emphasized the unprecedented number of threats currently facing their countries. They stated that the international world order is under a "threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War."