ISW outlines factor that could force Putin to negotiate with Ukraine
Photo: Vladimir Putin, Russian president (Getty Images)
Vladimir Putin is likely to agree to negotiations with Ukraine only if Russian forces suffer devastating defeats on the battlefield, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Experts reiterated their long-standing position that only timely and sufficient military support from Western countries, leading to significant defeats for Russia on the battlefield, could compel Vladimir Putin to abandon the goal of a military victory over Ukraine and agree to negotiations.
ISW analysts believe that such defeats would not happen within weeks and would likely require several months or even full-scale military campaigns. They noted that this would only be possible if the West commits to adequately arming and supporting Ukraine’s Defense Forces to enable effective operations.
One example of the pressure being applied to the Kremlin, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), is the 50-day deadline set by US President Donald Trump, demanding that Russian President Vladimir Putin agree to negotiations.
ISW also cited UK Defence Secretary John Healey, who stated during the July 21 meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group that member countries should leverage Trump’s warning of "harsh" 100% secondary tariffs on Russia’s trade partners if Moscow fails to agree to a peaceful resolution within 50 days from July 14.
Trump's 50-day deadline
In mid-July, President Donald Trump expressed frustration over Russia’s continued escalation of strikes on Ukrainian cities and gave the Kremlin 50 days to reach a peace agreement with Kyiv.
Should Moscow refuse, Washington has threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries still trading with Russia, including China, India, and Brazil.
Trump has also signaled readiness to sign a bipartisan bill imposing 500% tariffs on nations that continue to buy Russian oil and thus fund its war economy, potentially affecting China, India, and Turkey.
In recent days, the Kremlin has agreed to a third round of peace talks with Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the next meeting would take place in Istanbul on July 23.
At this stage of negotiations, Ukraine is reportedly focusing on two key objectives.
For more on what could happen to Putin and Russia after the 50-day deadline, read our full analysis.
