ISW explains why Russia launched nuclear drills right now

What is known about drills

The Russian Ministry of Defense on May 19 announced large-scale drills on the preparation and use of nuclear forces from May 19 to May 21 in response to an alleged threat of aggression.

Maneuvers involve:

• Strategic Missile Forces;

• Northern and Pacific Fleets;

• Long-Range Aviation Command;

• separate units of the Leningrad and the Central military districts.

According to the Russian defense ministry, more than 64,000 troops and more than 7,800 units of equipment are participating in drills, including:

• More than 200 missile launchers;

• More than 140 aircraft;

• 73 surface ships;

• 13 submarines, including eight strategic missile carriers.

Russian forces also announced launches of ballistic and cruise missiles at training grounds within Russia.

According to an assessment by the Russian BBC service citing the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, maneuvers may involve most of approximately 320 Russian intercontinental ballistic missile launchers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

Belarus joined the drills

The Russian Ministry of Defense also stated that joint operations involving the use of Russian nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus are being practiced.

A day earlier, on May 18, the Belarusian defense ministry announced the start of joint Russian-Belarusian nuclear drills.

Analysts note that Russia previously did not announce such maneuvers for May. Usually, such drills, unofficially called Grom, take place in autumn, in October.

The last time the Russian army conducted unexpected nuclear drills was in the summer of 2024. At that time, they were connected with tactical nuclear weapons.

What ISW says

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War believe Moscow is trying to use drills for information pressure on NATO.

"Russian forces are likely conducting the surprise May 19 to 21 nuclear exercises and amplifying longstanding narratives aimed at influencing NATO decision-making and masking Russia's own weaknesses," experts noted.

ISW emphasizes that Russian forces have not yet achieved significant results in their spring-summer offensive of 2026.

At the same time, Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to challenge tactical initiative in several sectors of the front and are delivering increasingly noticeable strikes on Russian rear facilities.

Kremlin threatens NATO again

Against the background of drills, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov spoke about an alleged direct clash between Russia and NATO with catastrophic consequences.

He also accused Alliance countries of nuclear provocations and stated that the Russian military takes the development of NATO nuclear forces into account.

ISW believes the Kremlin is using such statements as an information influence tactic to weaken the unity of Ukraine's allies and reduce support for Kyiv.

Russian nuclear drills

Russia announced the start of three-day large-scale drills on the preparation and use of nuclear weapons.

Kremlin stated that the goal of the maneuvers is to test troop readiness and allegedly deter the enemy.

Belarus also joined drills, although Minsk does not have real access to nuclear weapons.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry has already reacted to joint maneuvers by Moscow and Minsk.