ISW explains reasons and objectives of Russian counterattacks in Kursk region
Photo: Russians are trying to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region before winter (Getty Images)
Intensified Russian counterattacks likely aim to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region. This operation is planned before adverse weather conditions in the fall and early winter begin to restrict maneuvers on the battlefield, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukrainian officials have previously noted that Russian forces are ramping up offensive operations in Ukraine, particularly mechanized assaults, to take advantage of dry roads and terrain before the rainy season turns muddy.
This Russian operational calculation probably extends to efforts to reclaim the entire Kursk region. Several Russian sources reported the start of a period of limited mud on the ground beginning October 11.
"The Russian military command may be concerned that the poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 will encourage positional fighting in the Kursk region and afford Ukrainian forces more time to entrench themselves in their main salient and fortify existing positions," the ISW states.
The ISW also notes that better-entrenched Ukrainian forces with a more extensive fortification network in the Kursk region will likely further complicate Russian attempts to push Ukrainian troops back across the border. Given the current levels of personnel and equipment allocated for this operation, Russian forces may feel the window of opportunity to eliminate the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region is closing.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated on October 10 that since the invasion began on August 6, 2024, Russian forces have redeployed approximately 50,000 service members to the Kursk region from other operational fronts.
"The Russian military likely aims to avoid committing more manpower to the area in the event that the Ukrainian presence persists into 2025. Such redeployments have likely degraded the readiness of Russian operational groups in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv regions," the ISW report indicates.
Situation in the Kursk region
On October 10, Russian forces intensified efforts to drive the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from the Kursk region and made minimal advances into the foothold established by the AFU.
Russia concentrated up to 45,000 Russian forces in the Kursk direction. Specifically, troops are being redeployed from the frontlines in Ukraine.
Earlier, Ukrainian forces broke through another section of the front in the Kursk region.
According to media reports, Ukraine could retain the captured territory in the Kursk region for several more months.
