ISW explains consequences of US refusing to share intelligence with Ukraine

The report noted that US intelligence has contributed to Ukraine’s early warning system for Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities. This has allowed authorities and civilians to prepare for incoming missile and drone attacks.

However, the suspension of US intelligence sharing on Russian strikes against Ukraine’s rear areas, along with the halt in Patriot air defense missile deliveries -capable of intercepting ballistic threats - will have a serious impact on the security of Ukraine’s rear territories.

Airstrikes will intensify

ISW noted that Russia primarily targets Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and defense industry with drone and missile strikes. A likely intensification of these attacks following the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing would hinder Ukraine’s progress in strengthening its defense capabilities to supply its armed forces.

However, the report states that a self-sufficient Ukrainian defense industry could allow the country to protect itself in the long run, even if foreign military aid is significantly reduced. The report emphasizes that ensuring Ukraine's self-sufficiency remains in the national security interests of the US.

ISW also warns that Ukraine may lose its ability to strike Russian air defense systems in occupied territories using HIMARS and ATACMS ballistic missiles. This would allow Russian fighter pilots to operate closer to the front lines and increase Russia’s ability to deploy guided bombs more effectively in both frontline and rear Ukrainian cities.

The report concludes that the US policy of suspending military aid and intelligence sharing weakens President Donald Trump's leverage in achieving his stated goal of ending the war in Ukraine on acceptable terms. ISW argues that exerting greater pressure on Russia, rather than Ukraine, is necessary to reach this objective.

Russian army will take advantage of the situation

Kremlin officials have signaled their intent to capitalize on the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to gain further advantages on the battlefield.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on March 5 that US arms shipments to Ukraine would most likely resume, but that Russia’s primary objective remained to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine on the ground. He acknowledged that Moscow was aware it had a limited window to exploit the pause in US assistance.

"Medvedev's statement is consistent with ISW assessment that Russian forces will likely attempt to take advantage of the pause in US aid in order to make further gains in eastern and southern Ukraine to justify Russia's territorial claims to the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions," analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.

The ISW also noted that Russian forces had previously taken advantage of a pause in US military aid in early 2024.

During that time, Russian troops destroyed and occupied the city of Avdiivka, along with several settlements in western Donetsk Oblast. In May, Russian forces attempted to capture Kharkiv before Ukrainian troops resumed receiving US military assistance.

Suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine

The US has halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine for strikes on Russian territory, though it continues to provide data for targeting Russian positions in occupied areas, Sky News reported on March 5.

However, the outlet later reported that all intelligence-sharing had been fully suspended.

At the same time, sources within Ukraine's military circles told RBC-Ukraine that there had been no changes in intelligence cooperation between the two countries.

Later, the CIA director confirmed a total halt in US arms supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.