Even a big war won't topple Iran's ayatollah regime — US intel report
Ali Khamenei (photo: Getty Images)
Even a large-scale US military campaign is unlikely to bring regime change in Iran, according to a secret report from the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) prepared just before the war began, citing The Washington Post.
US intelligence forecasts
According to the outlet, American analysts believe that Iran's military and religious establishment has enough resources to maintain power even after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Washington's efforts to install a loyalist leader could fail due to the resilience of Iranian institutions.
"It sounds like a deeply informed assessment of the Iranian system and the institutions and processes that have been established for many years," said Suzanne Maloney, vice president at the Brookings Institution.
Tehran's and Trump's reactions
Despite strikes on missile sites and the fleet, Tehran rejects any notion of surrender.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emphasized that the country's future would be decided only by the Iranian people.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump continues to insist on changing Iran's leadership.
"We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job," he told reporters.
Condition of conflict
The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has now entered its second week.
The US claims that Tehran's military potential is significantly depleted, but intelligence sees no signs of internal government splits or mass uprisings that could lead to regime change.
US-Israeli war against Iran
The large-scale US-Israeli campaign, called Epic Fury, began in late February 2026.
President Trump has reported successes, including the destruction of Iran's fleet and ballistic arsenals.
Despite military successes, the US president has expressed frustration with the pace of the conflict, saying he is "not bored" and expects Tehran to surrender faster.
Experts and allies, however, warn that the conflict could become "another Iraq"—a prolonged war without a clear political resolution.
In addition, the fighting is already draining European arms stockpiles, as allies redirect resources to support the Middle East operation.
