IMF downgrades its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2026
Illustrative photo: Russia’s economic recovery this year is unlikely (Getty Images)
The International Monetary Fund today, January 19, lowered its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points — to 0.8%, according to Reuters.
The IMF, which has not sent monitoring missions to assess the economy of the aggressor country since November 2019, did not explain the reasons for lowering its forecast.
The agency notes that after showing resilience to Western sanctions during the first three years of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economy has slowed. In particular, growth is expected to drop to around 1% in 2025, down from 4.3% in 2024, due to the central bank keeping its key interest rate high to combat inflation.
"High costs of credit, an excessively strong rouble, labour shortages, tax hikes and falling state revenues from oil and gas are weighing down on the economy, making an economic rebound in 2026 unlikely," the material says.
At the same time, the Russian central bank forecasts economic growth of 0.5% to 1.5% in 2026.
Problems in Russia’s economy
Russia’s economy ended 2025 with catastrophic indicators. In particular, oil prices fell to a five-year low, while the space industry reverted to the level of 1961.
Russia’s financial and institutional system is sinking ever deeper into a state of managed chaos. Banks are concealing ownership structures, civil servants are being exempted from asset declarations, and entrepreneurs are barely keeping their businesses afloat.
In addition, in 2026–2027, Russian airlines are set to return mothballed Soviet- and foreign-made aircraft to service, most of which are over 30 years old. The reasons include sanctions, a shrinking fleet, and the lack of opportunities to renew it.
