Former Ukrainian intelligence general explains why Crimea cannot be left under Russian control

According to Pavlenko, the situation around the occupied peninsula has fundamentally changed over the past year. Ukraine has shifted to systematically limiting the enemy’s ability to use Crimea as a military base. It is no longer a safe rear area for Russia, but a territory of logistical pressure and constant risk.

The entire command and supply system of the Russian army is now under significant pressure: land routes, ports, crossings, air defense, and radar systems. As a result, Russia is forced to spend increasing resources not on offensive operations, but on holding the peninsula, gradually losing its military value.

"If the war ends but Crimea remains a Russian military bridgehead, it will not be the end of the war — it will be a pause before its next stage. The Kremlin has 200-year imperial ambitions, and Crimea is the golden key to achieving them," the major general stressed.

Pavlenko noted that Ukrainian pressure on Crimea has not only military but also strategic political significance. It significantly strengthens Ukraine’s negotiating position, provides new arguments for international support, and returns the peninsula to the global geopolitical agenda as a key security factor in the Black Sea region.

At the same time, he warned about the need to prepare for large-scale Russian information operations in the event of de-occupation.

"Russia will launch an anti-Ukrainian campaign. It will say: 'Look what Ukraine is doing.' That is why expert networks must already bring this into the international discussion — not only to reassure partners, but also to explain that we must be prepared for it constructively," he added.