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Expert outlines three potential scenarios for Avdiivka

Expert outlines three potential scenarios for Avdiivka Illustrative photo (Photo: Getty Images)

The situation in Avdiivka is worsening, with Russian forces continuing to advance. The media increasingly reports the threat of encirclement and the capture of the city before the elections of dictator Vladimir Putin in March. In this regard, three possible scenarios for Avdiivka can be distinguished, according to material from RBC-Ukraine titled "Russian all-out assault on Avdiivka: Potential battle scenarios and threat of encirclement."

Military expert Oleksandr Musiienko outlines possible scenarios for Avdiivka.

The first is to try to reinforce and break the situation, holding the city where it is still possible to consolidate. The risk is that the transfer of reserves means losses and exhaustion for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the possibility of retreat cannot be ruled out.

The second scenario involves a counterattack from the northern or southern flank to relieve pressure on our forces. It is also associated with certain risks because it requires a large number of troops capable of striking the enemy very quickly.

"The third, as it seems to me, is perhaps the most optimal: gradually withdrawing directly from Avdiivka and taking up defensive positions elsewhere. Which one will be implemented depends on the command," Musiienko notes.

Fighting in the Avdiivka area

Since the fall of 2023, Russian aggressors have been trying to capture the city. According to Ukrainian military sources, the Russians have lost tens of thousands of soldiers in battles for the city.

Currently, the aggressors are managing to advance on the outskirts of Avdiivka. Another defensive outpost remains at the coking plant.

Vitalii Barabash, the chief of the Avdiivka Military Administration, notes that occupation forces are in the private sector of the city, but it is far from being completely lost.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces believe that if the occupation forces reach the supply artery in Avdiivka, it will complicate the logistics of our troops.

According to the latest information from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia continues to storm the Avdiivka area. Russian special forces units have been redeployed there.