Estonian intelligence named factors behind Russia's preparation for war with NATO
Estonian Army soldier (Illustrative photo: wikipedia.org)
Russia is trying to build up its potential in preparation for a potential future war with NATO. This is indicated by the increase in the production of UAVs with technological support from China, according to a report by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS).
In its annual report on February 12, the intelligence service focused on Russian threats to Estonia, other NATO members, and the West.
The document notes that the pace of the Russian army's rearmament will depend on the duration and outcome of Russia's war in Ukraine. The cessation or freezing of the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to the Kremlin will allow Russia to continuously deploy more troops along the borders of neighboring NATO member countries than it did before the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The intelligence report also highlights Russia's efforts to increase, improve, and centralize the operations and production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
It is noted that Russia will allocate an average of one million euros (about 1 million dollars) annually for its national project "Unmanned Aerial Vehicles" until 2030.
The project was launched in December 2023. Its goal is to establish 48 scientific and production centers across Russia, standardize UAV production and development, create a digital database of unmanned industry experts, and integrate drone-related education into 75% of Russian schools.
According to EFIS estimates, Russia aims to use these research centers to reduce dependence on Western and foreign technologies and components.
In this context, Russia continues to rely on China for the procurement of Western components for UAV production. According to Estonian intelligence, up to 80% of Western components subject to sanctions are likely to reach Russia through China.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its February 13 report noted that Estonia's intelligence findings align with its assessments of Russia's ongoing efforts to prepare its military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium and long term.
Threat of war between Russia and NATO countries
European intelligence agencies have confirmed Russia's preparations for war with NATO. For instance, Denmark's intelligence service has stated that within five years, Russia will be ready for a full-scale war with the Alliance.
The Russian army is already using innovations in UAV production against individual NATO countries.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has stated that Ukraine's NATO membership is not a realistic option as a security guarantee to end the war.
Instead, official Kyiv is determined to pursue NATO membership.
Swedish Defense Minister Paul Jonsson also did not rule out Ukraine's NATO membership.
