Estonia assesses risk of possible Russian attack on NATO countries
Photo: Estonian intelligence is convinced that Russia has no intention of attacking NATO (Russian media)
At present, there are no signs that Russia is planning to attack any NATO member state, stated Kaupo Rosin, director general of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, in an interview with ERR.
"What we see today is that Russia currently has no intention of attacking any Baltic country or NATO more broadly," he said.
Rosin also noted that Russia has "changed its behavior" following Western responses to provocations, including damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea and drones entering NATO airspace.
He said Russia "respects NATO and is trying to avoid any open conflict."
"We see, for example, that Russian aircraft today are very careful about where they fly over the Baltic Sea and follow their routes with painstaking precision to avoid causing incidents," he added.
Russia opposes EU military rearmament
At the same time, Rosin said Russia is interested in slowing down Europe's rearmament. In particular, he recalled statements by the Russian leader about legally enshrining the absence of any intention to attack the EU.
"This is part of a calming message — to create a sense in Europe that everything is fine, that Russia poses no threat, and that there is no need to rush rearmament," Rosin said.
He also noted that Russia is working with various politicians and groups to promote the idea that an arms race is pointless and "takes money away from other areas."
Earlier, the chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said Russia would not be able to fight a war on two fronts. At the same time, he warned that if hostilities in Ukraine end, Russia’s next potential attack could target the Baltic states.
