Economy, prices and salaries in Ukraine: Fitch agency's forecast
Photo: Fitch Ratings updated the forecast for the economy of Ukraine (Getty Images)
International agency Fitch Ratings forecasts slowed economic growth in Ukraine due to a shortage of labor and electricity.
The agency forecasts growth of 4% in 2024, driven by the normalization of trade activity in the Black Sea, high government spending, and household incomes benefiting from real wage growth.
"Although Ukraine has demonstrated resilience and adaptability to the war, we forecast growth to slow down to 2.9% in 2025 due to continued labour and energy shortages," the statement reads.
Agency analysts believe that "durable and credible ceasefire could significantly lift the country's growth prospects in 2025-2026."
According to Fitch’s forecast, inflation will average 9.3% in 2025, up from 6.2% in 2024. "Rapid wage growth amid labour shortages and skills mismatches could maintain domestic demand price pressures," the forecast states.
Recall that the IMF predicts a 4% increase in Ukraine’s real GDP in 2024. However, for 2025, a slowdown to 2.5-3.5% is expected, reflecting issues related to damaged energy infrastructure and labor shortages.
As previously reported, Fitch Ratings anticipates that the Russia-Ukraine war will continue in 2025 within its current broad parameters. A ceasefire is possible, but a peace agreement remains unlikely.
