Russia may try Ukraine-style separatist scenario in Estonian city Narva, Bild reports
Russia may be preparing invasion of Estonia (illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Russia may be preparing an invasion of eastern Estonia, the city of Narva, for which it has launched a propaganda campaign on social media. Country's intelligence services see repetition of scenario similar to events of 2014 in Ukraine, Bild reports, citing a post by Head of Center for Countering Disinformation under National Security and Defense Council Andriy Kovalenko.
For several weeks, Russian channels on social media have been promoting the idea of proclaiming the so-called Narva People's Republic. Narva is a border city in eastern Estonia with a population of about 50,000 people, 90 percent of whom are Russian-speaking.
Estonian intelligence services see in this campaign a possible preparation for invasion similar to the beginning of Russian aggression against Ukraine in the spring of 2014.
Russian campaign on social media
Since the beginning of March, calls have appeared on social media for the distribution of leaflets, acts of sabotage, and arming to proclaim the Narva People's Republic.
Propagandists call for armed struggle under slogans "Russians, we are not alone!" and "From Narva to Püssi (city in northeastern Estonia, ed.) stretches Russian land." Maps and flags of the supposed People's Republic are also being published.
Intimidation and destabilization of society
Marta Tuule, spokesperson of Estonian security service Kapo, said these social media posts are a disinformation campaign aimed at creating confusion and splitting social cohesion.
"Such methods have already been used in Estonia and other countries. This is a simple and inexpensive way to intimidate and destabilize society. This is provocation, and participation in it may have criminal consequences," she said.
Publication, citing sources in Estonian intelligence services, writes that "it is not a coincidence that this campaign is starting exactly now, when world attention is focused on Iran."
"For now, it is not clear what exactly this narrative line is intended for. However, we cannot exclude that it is preparing a Russian invasion following the model of events of 2014 in Ukraine," sources said.
Europe ignores scenarios of Russian aggression
Kovalenko emphasized that, judging by the analysis of Bild regarding the "attack of Russians on Narva", Europe still lives in the paradigm of "old war with tank columns" and ignores new scenarios of aggression that will be used by Russia.
"Two years ago, one year ago, and even this year, I wrote that Russia is preparing scenarios of aggression in the Baltic region, and the main part of aggressive actions against Europe may concern the use of drones and missiles. First aggression in the air, then assault groups, sabotage, and only then everything else," he noted.
The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation added that European journalists "think extremely linearly" and prepare residents of countries of the European Union for less realistic threats than actually exist.
Europe is preparing to launch large-scale defense reform that includes joint production of weapons and drones. Brussels plans to make Europe ready for war by 2030.
According to the head of the Federal Intelligence Service of Germany, Martin Jäger, Russian President Vladimir Putin demonstrates readiness to test the borders of Europe and is capable of provoking "hot confrontation" at any moment.
