Europe gears up for possible war with Russia by 2030 — Bloomberg
Photo: Europe expects Russia to attack by 2030 (Getty Images)
The EU is preparing to launch a large-scale defense reform, including joint production of weapons and drones. Brussels wants to make Europe ready for war by 2030, Bloomberg reports.
The document, which Bloomberg has seen, provides for a large-scale update of military planning and procurement in the EU.
According to the plan, by the end of 2027, the EU should conduct 40% of its arms procurement jointly, which is more than twice the current level.
"Authoritarian states are increasingly interfering in our societies and economies. Traditional allies and partners are shifting their focus to other regions of the world," the document says.
Russia named as main threat
The document emphasizes that a militarized Russia poses a permanent threat to European security in the foreseeable future. Therefore, EU countries are encouraged to coordinate military spending and quickly form coalitions to implement joint defense programs.
The Commission expects such efforts to begin as early as next year if Europe wants to be ready for combat operations by 2030. The plan will be presented on Thursday, and the final discussion will take place at a summit in Brussels next week.
Increased defense spending and new goals
As noted in the document, the EU's total defense budget has nearly doubled since 2021, from €218 billion to an estimated €392 billion in 2025. However, spending remains fragmented, which hinders the rapid modernization of weapons.
The new strategy calls for joint projects on air defense systems, missile defense, drones, and anti-drone tech. Coalitions to manage these initiatives should be set up by early 2026, with projects scheduled to launch in mid-2026.
Fund and new defense initiatives
The plan also calls for the creation of a fund of up to €1 billion by 2026, in partnership with the European Investment Bank, to support defense developments. A €150 billion fund has already been approved to finance larger-scale programs, which will be distributed among various projects.
In addition, the EU plans to launch flagship initiatives such as European Drone Defense and Eastern Flank Watch, which will take into account Ukraine's experience in repelling Russian attacks. These programs are scheduled to start in 2026, and a full-fledged drone system across the continent is expected to be operational by 2027.
Power balance in Europe may change
The EU has traditionally played a secondary role in defense issues, yielding leadership to member states and NATO. However, the new plan calls for greater coordination and centralization of decisions, which could change the balance of power within the union.
However, large countries, including Germany, have already stated that final decisions on military issues should remain with national governments. This points to possible friction within the bloc during the implementation of large-scale defense projects.
Earlier, the new president of Germany's Federal Foreign Intelligence Service (BND), Martin Jäger, said that Vladimir Putin is ready to test European borders and could provoke a hot confrontation at any moment.
Ukrainian military intelligence has stated that Russia considers a large-scale war in Europe to be inevitable in the medium term.
