Demographic gap - Socioeconomist assessed Ukraine's losses due to war
Photo: Demographic crisis in Ukraine caused by the war (Getty Images)
Ukraine could lose around 10 million people as a result of the full-scale war. This is the so-called demographic gap that is increasingly being discussed, according to Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
She notes that this figure includes not only irreversible losses but also mass emigration, additional mortality, declining birth rates, and "unborn" children due to the war. Libanova points out that some Ukrainians may return, but a significant return is not expected.
The demographer emphasizes that the sharp decline in birth rates is particularly critical. In 2021, there were 2.1 children per woman in Ukraine, but according to the Institute’s calculations, this indicator is now only 0.7. After the war, the birth rate may gradually rise to 1.6, but this is the maximum that can be expected.
For simple generational replacement, 2.15 children per woman are needed, Libanova reminds. Today, Ukraine is at the level of South Korea, where the birth rate also fell to 0.7 despite a high standard of living.
The full picture will only become clear after a population census, which Ukraine plans to conduct after the war ends.
Earlier, RBC-Ukraine reported that demographic aging in Ukraine is rapidly accelerating due to mass migration and the sharp decline in birth rates during the war. According to Ella Libanova, this shifts the balance between those who are working and those who can no longer work, leading to a smaller workforce, lower budget revenues, and higher expenditures.
