Could Belarus launch attack on Ukraine? Expert evaluates new risks
Illustrative photo: Is Belarus preparing for an attack on Ukraine (Getty Images)
Against the backdrop of new military and nuclear drills by Russia and Belarus, talks have resurfaced about a possible offensive against Ukraine from the north. However, Alexander Lukashenko fully understands the consequences of attacking Ukraine, states political strategist Taras Zahorodnii in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
"Lukashenko is a bandit and a dictator, but not an idiot," the expert said.
According to him, the Belarusian dictator fully understands the risks to his own economy and grip on power in the event of actual involvement in the war.
Zahorodnii pointed out that Belarus’ key economic facilities, including the Mozyr Oil Refinery and potash fertilizer production sites, are located near the Ukrainian border and could become vulnerable in the event of escalation.
"He knows how long it takes to reach the Mozyr Oil Refinery, which is just 100 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. You could immediately lose everything that generates income," the political strategist explained.
Imitation of war preparations
According to Zahorodnii, Lukashenko will continue to demonstrate active preparations for a possible conflict, but will do so mainly for the Kremlin and to secure financial support from Russia.
"He will do everything possible not to attack and not to show any intention of doing so," the expert believes.
Zahorodnii also noted that the Belarusian authorities remember the events of 2022 and saw the condition in which Russian troops returned after the failed offensive on Kyiv.
In addition, a significant part of Belarusian society, as well as the army itself, does not support the idea of war against Ukraine.
"Eighty percent of Belarusians categorically do not want to fight. Not against Ukraine, nor against anyone else," he added.
Belarus has launched drills involving military units focused on the combat use of nuclear weapons and nuclear support, with the participation of the Russian side.
Earlier, it was also reported that Russia had intensified attempts to draw Belarus into further military actions against Ukraine and had discussed the matter with Lukashenko.
