Starlink and Telegram disruptions helped Ukrainian forces: ISW reports counterattacks near regional border

"Ukrainian forces are conducting localized and opportunistic counterattacks near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast administrative border, likely to take advantage of recent blocks on Starlink terminals and Telegram," analysts write.

Geolocated footage released on February 12 records Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions east of Haichur River — in particular east and south of Dobropillia and north of Varvarivka (northwest of Huliaipole).

As ISW indicated, this suggests that Ukrainian units held these positions and are currently conducting limited counterattacks to restore communication between separate strongpoints along the front line.

Analysts assume that Russian forces may have bypassed certain Ukrainian positions during infiltrations to create the impression of broader territorial gains. ISW began recording reports of limited Ukrainian counterattacks in this area as early as February 9.

Russian milbloggers initially portrayed these counterattacks as a Ukrainian "counteroffensive," but Ukrainian military sources and some Russian military bloggers later indicated that Ukrainian counterattacks are limited in scale and scope.

"Russian milbloggers have continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting counterattacks north and northwest of Huliaipole, but noted that the situation on the ground is unclear due to degraded Russian communications on the frontline," the report states.

According to ISW, Ukrainian counterattacks may be linked to problems in the command and control system of Russian forces.

The NATO official on February 11 told the Russian service of BBC that part of Ukraine's successes in the eastern Zaporizhzhia region is linked to efforts by SpaceX to restrict Russian use of Starlink terminals in early February 2026.

In addition, Russian military bloggers complain about communication difficulties due to restrictions on access to Telegram since February 9.

According to them, simultaneous problems with Starlink and Telegram significantly affected the coordination of Russian units on the front line.

ISW believes that Ukrainian forces are trying to use these difficulties in the Russian command and control (C2) system to improve tactical position on this section of the front.

What preceded

Recently, Russian military correspondents began spreading information that the Ukrainian army launched a counteroffensive at the junction of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

According to ISW analysts, Russian forces deliberately made such statements to justify false information about the advance of their troops in this area.

Southern Defense Forces also refuted information about a counteroffensive by Ukrainian Armed Forces and explained what is actually happening on the front.