CNN reports 2 more years of war: Expert's opinion on feasibility and timing of Ukraine's offensive
Illustrative photo (Photo: Getty Images)
The American channel CNN has stated that the West intelligence predicts at least two more years of fighting in Ukraine. However, military expert Oleksandr Musiienko notes that it is impossible to accurately predict the duration of the war.
RBC-Ukraine reports on how much longer the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine may last and when to expect a new offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
How long will the war last in Ukraine?
Today, CNN published an article citing representatives of Western intelligence, suggesting that the war in Ukraine may last at least another two years. Some Western officials, as reported by CNN, even mention a potential duration of five years.
According to Musiienko, accurately predicting the duration of any war is practically impossible, as various factors influence it.
"All these forecasts are quite conditional because the duration of a war is affected by factors not only related to the situation on the battlefield but also internal political or economic conditions. Plus, there are often so-called black swan events that can significantly change the situation in one direction or another," he explains.
For instance, Musiienko notes that if the rebellion led by Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin had succeeded, the situation on the front line might be entirely different now.
"But no one could predict Prigozhin's rebellion, not even analysts who forecast the duration of the war. Therefore, predicting the exact duration of the war is very difficult," adds the expert.
When to expect a new offensive from the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Musiienko believes that Ukrainian defense forces will actively focus on defending to conserve their resources, minimize losses, and inflict greater damage on the enemy.
"That is, to weaken the Russian forces advancing, repel attacks, and thus conduct active defense. Plus, whenever an opportunity arises, switch to certain offensive actions to strike at enemy rear areas and hit Russian territory," he explains.
He emphasizes that it all depends on the level of support from Ukraine's partners in terms of arming the Ukrainian army. Currently, he believes that there is no talk of a new massive offensive by the Ukrainian army, as the available resources may be sufficient only for active defense.
"But active defense includes the possibility of breaking through the front line and creating a collapse of the occupiers' front in some directions to expedite offensive actions for us. But I think, evaluating the level of supply, we can say that this powerful Ukrainian offensive may occur in 2025," concludes Musiienko.
It's worth noting that these are not the first predictions about the duration of the war in Ukraine.
Earlier, NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoana suggested that the war between Russia and Ukraine might not end even by 2025.
Additionally, the head of Defense Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, has stated that Russia currently has no plans for war in 2025, while the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, compared the war in Ukraine to a 100-meter race, indicating that the Armed Forces have covered 70 meters already.
