Catastrophic global warming looms as fossil fuel emissions hit alarming levels

Global warming on the road to disaster

According to the publication, despite promises, the new government plans presented at the CoP30 climate talks in Brazil have failed to significantly reduce the risk of deadly global warming for the fourth consecutive year.

By the end of the century, temperatures are projected to exceed pre-industrial levels by 2.6°C, far surpassing the limits set by the Paris Climate Agreement. Such a scenario poses a significant threat of a global catastrophe, with extreme weather events and serious economic and environmental consequences.

According to a separate report, fossil fuel emissions are expected to rise by about 1% this year, reaching record levels. The growth rate has slowed by more than half compared to the previous decade. Emissions are now rising at the rate of 0.8% per year, compared to a prior rate of 2%.

The development of renewable energy is approaching the point of covering the annual increase in energy demand, but it has not yet surpassed it.

Consequences of rising temperatures

"A world at 2.6°C means global disaster," said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.

He warned of the collapse of Atlantic Ocean circulation, the loss of coral reefs, the deterioration of ice sheets, and the transformation of the Amazon's tropical rainforests into savannas.

"That all means the end of agriculture in the UK and across Europe, drought and monsoon failure in Asia and Africa, lethal heat and humidity," he added.

Scientists noted that since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the planet has already warmed by 1.3°C, leading to more severe storms, wildfires, droughts, and other disasters.

Emissions and political challenges

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to update their national emissions reduction plans regularly. In the current CoP30 round, only about 100 countries have submitted updated nationally determined contributions, but their efforts remain insufficient to counter the climate crisis.

It is also noted that even under the net-zero emissions scenario, prospects have worsened to 2.2°C due to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the policies of President Donald Trump, who referred to the climate crisis as a "hoax" and pushed for expanded oil and gas drilling.

At the same time, thanks to the growth of clean energy and the decline in coal use, projected global warming has decreased compared to the initial Paris Agreement forecast of 3.6°C by 2100.

Scientists sound the alarm

Scientists from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) warn that the planet's carbon sinks have weakened, and the combined effects of global warming and deforestation are turning tropical forests in Southeast Asia and South America from carbon absorbers into sources of greenhouse gas.

Former US Vice President Al Gore stated it is "literally insane that we are allowing global heating to continue."

He urged countries to adapt to the consequences of climate change and accelerate emissions reductions.

Professor Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia noted that emissions are growing much more slowly than before, thanks to the rapid expansion of renewable energy.

"It is clear that climate policy and actions work – we are able globally to bend these curves," she added.

CO2 levels in the atmosphere are projected to reach 425 ppm in 2025, which is 145 ppm above pre-industrial levels. Experts are calling on countries to double their efforts in renewable energy development and plan for the gradual phase-out of fossil fuel production and consumption.

The International Energy Agency recently stated that global demand for oil and gas is expected to continue growing until 2025.

The IEA forecasts that oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century (13% higher than in 2024), and that global energy demand will increase by 15% by 2035.

Earlier, we reported that scientists have identified cities that could be submerged due to climate change.