Baltic states fear Russian attack amid Ukraine truce talks

The defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania do not hide their concern that Russia will not stop in Ukraine after the administration of US President Donald Trump mediates a ceasefire. The Baltic states note that the Kremlin has already outlined plans to increase military production and deploy additional troops along their borders.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur believes that when the war in Ukraine is stopped, Russia will redeploy its forces very quickly. This means that the level of threat will also quickly increase significantly, he told the media.

The Lithuanian Defense Minister agrees with him. Dovile Šakalienė urges not to be delusional and not to deceive ourselves that Russia will be finished after Ukraine.

According to her, Russia will take advantage of the time after the ceasefire in Ukraine to accelerate the build-up of its military capabilities.

Russians already have a huge, combat-trained army, which will become even bigger, she added.

Russia's activity on NATO's northeastern flank

According to journalists, the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine will give Russia a chance to realize its plans for 2022 to create an army of 1.5 million people and add a whole new army corps in the north, doubling the number of troops near Finland and the Baltic states.

Pevkur said that of the 600,000 Russian troops estimated to be in Ukraine, 300,000 are likely to be redeployed. He believes these people will not return to different regions of Russia to harvest corn or do anything else, because the salary they receive in the army is 5-10 times higher than what they could receive in their hometown.

Military drills Zapad (West)

The Baltic states are particularly concerned about large-scale military drills called Zapad that will take place near their borders in Russia and Belarus this fall.

Held every four years, the exercise simulates a conflict with NATO countries and involves tens of thousands of troops, tanks, aircraft, and artillery.

The two ministers also warned against redeploying NATO troops from their countries to form a so-called European “security guarantee force” that would be sent to Ukraine as a means of deterring Russia from attacking again.

Pevkur says his country cannot jeopardize the security of NATO's eastern flank and cannot fall into the trap that its forces have somehow been entrenched in Ukraine, risking the border.

Sending troops to Ukraine and protecting Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia

The countries on NATO's eastern flank, including Poland and Romania, have stated that they cannot commit to deploying troops to Ukraine to the detriment of their own security.

Estonia also objects to the UK's plans to redeploy British troops to Ukraine that were aimed at defending the Baltic states, the FT notes.

According to the media, for now:

• Lithuania is being defended by a German brigade that will be deployed on its territory in the coming months.
• Latvia is defended by a multinational force led by Canada.
• Estonia is defended by a British brigade that can be deployed from the UK at short notice.

Russia's new offensive in Ukraine

Russian troops are preparing to launch a new military offensive in Ukraine. As AP has found out, the Russian offensive on the front should last from six to nine months and take almost all of 2025.

As President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier, citing intelligence data, the threat is aimed at the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

The ISW reassures that while Russia is launching large-scale attacks on several frontlines in Ukraine, trying to influence the ceasefire and negotiations, the Russians are unable to achieve significant success.