AI and nuclear war aren't only dangers: Scientists warn of 17 threats to humanity
Scientists have calculated the risk of human extinction this century (photo: Magnific)
By 2100, humanity could face the risk of extinction due to AI misuse or a nuclear conflict. This conclusion comes from an international group of experts on The Lancet Commission on 21st century global threats to health, according to IFLScience.
17 key threats
Scientists have identified 17 major factors that could threaten human health and lives over the next 75 years.
To assess the scale of the risks, researchers used the DALYs metric, which measures years of healthy life lost to disease, disability, or premature death.
Among the most dangerous scenarios capable of causing the collapse of civilization are:
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The use of artificial intelligence to develop deadly biological weapons
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A nuclear conflict followed by "nuclear famine" caused by soot emissions and reduced sunlight
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The climate crisis and widespread air pollution
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Child malnutrition and the spread of antimicrobial resistance
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Sharp cuts in international humanitarian and medical aid.
Analysts emphasize that these critical scenarios remain relatively unlikely, but their consequences would be catastrophic.
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Unequal risks, cuts to international aid
The pattern of threats varies significantly by income level and region.
In wealthy countries, noncommunicable diseases pose the main health risks, particularly obesity and mental health problems. In contrast, in poorer regions, most losses are linked to social factors and low education levels.
Scientists also paid particular attention to cuts in international aid budgets by major donors.
According to the authors' calculations, a collapse or substantial reduction in health grants could cost humanity up to 1.5 billion years of healthy life by 2100, with nearly 70% of these losses occurring in sub-Saharan African countries.
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A call for action, not panic
The commission comprises 35 leading experts from around the world, and it will present its findings at the World Health Summit in Berlin. The researchers stress that their goal is not to frighten the public but to provide governments with a clear risk map to help them make effective decisions.
According to the authors' estimates, limiting global warming to 1.8°C instead of the pessimistic 4.4°C scenario would preserve 1.89 billion years of healthy life.
The commission plans to update its rankings annually and urges world leaders to invest in the right technological innovations and systematically strengthen healthcare systems.
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