Russia seeks to convince West of its inevitable victory over Ukraine - ISW
Photo: Kremlin launches new information campaign against Western countries (Getty Images)
Russia’s military leadership is presenting false data about the successes of its army at the front. The Kremlin is attempting to convince Western countries of an inevitable victory over Ukraine, although this is not the case, according to a report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assess that the Kremlin has launched a coordinated information campaign, exaggerating battlefield achievements to convince the West that Russia’s victory over Ukraine is inevitable. Analysts note this effort seeks to create pressure for concessions and a reduction of Western support.
Exaggerated claims by Russian generals
As an example, Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov recently claimed that since March 2025, Russian forces had seized 3,500 km² of territory and 149 settlements. He also alleged that Russia controls 99.7% of Luhansk, 79% of Donetsk, 76% of Kherson, and 74% of Zaporizhzhia regions, along with half of Kupiansk and multiple villages in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
ISW analysts counter that since March, Russian forces have captured only about 2,346 km² and 130 settlements, far less than Gerasimov stated. In Kupiansk, Russia holds just 6.3% of the city and does not fully control many of the villages Gerasimov listed.
Defense Minister Andrei Belousov likewise claimed Russian forces were advancing 600–700 km² per month, but ISW calculates the actual pace at 440–500 km² monthly during June–August.
Heavy losses and slow advance
ISW stresses that these claims omit the massive losses Russia is suffering. According to Russian registry data analyzed by Meduza and Mediazona, at least 93,000 Russian soldiers were killed in 2024, nearly double the 2023 figure. Since the start of 2025, an additional 56,000 deaths have been estimated, though the data is incomplete due to delays in inheritance filings.
Analysts emphasize that Russia’s territorial gains come at a disproportionate human cost. The tempo of advances remains "creeping" and extremely slow by modern mechanized warfare standards. Russian forces increasingly rely on light vehicles such as buggies, ATVs, and motorcycles, but their progress rarely exceeds walking speed, and they have failed to consolidate breakthroughs, including near Dobropillia in the Donetsk region.
ISW concludes that by overstating gains without acknowledging losses, Moscow is manipulating perceptions of combat effectiveness to bolster its long-standing narrative of inevitable victory.
Frontline updates
Over the past day, around 140 combat clashes were recorded, with the heaviest fighting once again in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated the village of Myrne near Kupiansk in Kharkiv region, preventing Russian troops from shelling a key highway.
Meanwhile, Russian forces are attempting to entrench near the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region, but Ukrainian defenders continue to block these efforts.
