Possible threat from Belarus and other directions: Blitz interview with Border Guard Service spokesperson

On the situation at the border and enemy activity

– What is the overall situation at the border, where are Russian forces most active, and in which directions?

– The frontline and the border with Russia in Chernihiv region, Sumy region, and Kharkiv region are effectively the only active combat zone. The most intense assaults in recent times have been recorded in the defensive sectors on the Pokrovsk and Lyman directions, where units of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine are operating.

As for the border itself, over the past few days, assault attempts have been recorded within the Krasnopillia and Myropillia communities in the Sumy region. In the Kharkiv region, this is the Vovchansk community, in particular, the directions of the settlements of Vovchanski Khutory and Dihtiarne.

On threats from Belarus

– Recently, an aerial balloon was detected entering from the territory of Belarus. What was its purpose? Have similar incidents been recorded since then?

– As a rule, Belarus refrains from independently launching or supporting Russian launches through its territory. However, at the end of last week, within the Kyiv region, we detected a target identified as an aerial balloon.

It was carrying a signal repeater. At that time, Russia was attacking Ukraine with Shahed drones and Gerberas moving along the border, and the balloon effectively amplified the signal for Russian systems. This is another form of support that Belarus provides to Russia.

– Belarus is actively developing training ranges, roads, and artillery positions. Does this indicate preparation for the permanent deployment of large Russian forces, and do you currently see a direct threat of a new invasion from this direction?

The threat always remains. All this infrastructure that Belarus continues to develop is not located in the immediate vicinity of the border with Ukraine, but it is oriented toward the direction of our border. It includes logistics, training grounds, and bases that Belarus could at any moment provide for Russian forces if Russia decides to redeploy troops to Belarus.

Currently, Russia does not have units on Belarusian territory that could carry out a renewed invasion. However, provocations aimed at destabilization and stretching Ukraine’s Defense Forces cannot be ruled out.

– What is the current number of Russian military personnel on the territory of Belarus?

At the end of 2023, Russia withdrew around 10,000–12,000 troops who had been undergoing training there. After completing training, they were transferred back to Russian territory to reinforce forces on the frontline. However, Russia did not deploy new forces. In other words, their number at that time fluctuated at the level of 10,000–12,000, and all of them were withdrawn by Russia.

At the same time, certain units may still remain in Belarus, related to logistics and aircraft maintenance, but their number is small.

– The President recently mentioned "specific activity" at the border. What does this refer to? Does it indicate a threat of Belarusian troops entering the war?

– I cannot disclose details. However, the activity we referred to, including aerial targets detected in Belarus near the border with Ukraine, as well as the use of aerial balloons to support Russia, also affects the security of our border.

– Belarus has begun restricting the exit of Russian conscripts. Are we seeing any reverse flow, for example, are Russian citizens trying to illegally enter Ukraine through Belarusian forests while fleeing mobilization?

– No, there are no recorded attempts of Russian citizens crossing the border into Ukraine from the Belarusian direction.

However, as before, Belarus may use illegal migrants as a tool of pressure, primarily against European countries. In addition, during the full-scale war, such attempts to cross the border into Ukraine were recorded, but in previous years.

On Transnistria and the southern border

– What is the situation on the border with the unrecognized Transnistria? Are there any signs that the enemy is preparing raids or the creation of buffer zones?

– The border with Moldova in the Transnistrian segment is a threatening direction, just like the border with Belarus, for example. However, neither on the border with Belarus nor on the border with the so-called Transnistria have any attempts of sabotage groups entering or movement of equipment been recorded at present.

Nevertheless, we remember 2022 and attempts at destabilization, so this direction is being continuously reinforced. It is important to understand that under more favorable conditions, Russia could use this direction as well, even though it does not have large forces there. But again, for destabilizing the situation and stretching Ukrainian forces, this direction can be used at any moment.

– According to open-source data, the Russian contingent in Transnistria numbers approximately 100–1,500 personnel. Has this figure remained unchanged?

– Yes, that number remains the same.

Quick Q&A

– What was the purpose of launching an aerial balloon from Belarus into Ukraine?

Such balloons are equipped with signal repeaters. They amplify the signal for strike drones attacking Ukraine. This is one of the forms of support for Russia from the side of Belarus.

– Is there a threat of a new invasion from Belarus?

At present, Russia does not have a military grouping in Belarus for a renewed offensive (the contingent of 10,000–12,000 troops was withdrawn at the end of 2023). However, Belarus is developing military infrastructure that Russia could use to rapidly redeploy forces at any moment.

– What is the situation on the border with the unrecognized Transnistria?

The direction remains threatening, although no active movement of equipment or sabotage groups has been recorded. The Russian contingent there is stable — approximately 1,000–1,500 personnel.