Will Trump deliver 'hellish strike' on Iran? Political scientist weighs in
Photo: US President Donald Trump (Getty Images)
Key points:
- Attack on Kharg Island instead of a "hellish strike": Donald Trump may claim that massive damage has been inflicted and push back the deadline for negotiations.
- Rhetoric differs from actions: US presidential statements should not be taken literally, as political declarations and actual military plans often do not align.
- No nuclear strike: The use of tactical nuclear weapons against Iran is extremely unlikely. The main value of such weapons today lies in deterrence and coercion.
What is the likelihood of a 'hellish strike' on Iran
According to the expert, it is impossible to predict the actions of Donald Trump with 100% certainty. However, today’s strike on Iran’s Kharg Island could serve as a kind of substitute for the previously promised large-scale attack.
Mahda suggests that the US president may use strikes on the island — often referred to as Iran’s "oil heart" — in his rhetoric in order to preserve room for maneuver and continue peace negotiations.
"Trump can always say that we struck Iranian positions, inflicted significant damage, and therefore there is no need to destroy Iranian civilization, because we are still humanists," the political scientist noted.
The expert also advises not to react too strongly to the US leader’s bold statements. According to him, political rhetoric and the actual plans of the US military do not always align.
"Trump’s statements and the plans of the American military are like rails that are sometimes connected by sleepers, and sometimes not," Mahda said in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine.
However, he added that as the midterm elections to Congress approach, Trump’s actions are likely to become more calculated. He may declare a political victory and bring an end to hostilities.
Is the use of nuclear weapons possible
Commenting on rumors about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons against Iran, Mahda expressed significant skepticism. He emphasized that the main power of such weapons today lies in coercion and pressure.
"Once it is used, its sacred status would significantly diminish," the expert explained.
He added that since the only combat use of nuclear weapons in 1945, the global situation has changed dramatically.
Read also: Ground invasion of Iran coming? US hits Kharg Island, bridges and deploys troops
