Will Russian army succeed during summer offensive? Ukrainian expert's assessment
Photo: Russian forces unlikely to achieve significant gains during the summer offensive (Getty Images)
Russian forces are unlikely to achieve significant gains during the summer offensive campaign. The enemy army has not grown in numbers, so substantial advances are unlikely, military expert Oleksii Hetman states in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
"Do they have the capability to advance? Their army hasn’t increased in numbers, neither in personnel nor in equipment. They’re slightly better off with ammunition, thanks to North Korea. But there’s been no increase in manpower or hardware, so it’s not entirely clear on what basis one could assume they can make significant advances," Hetman said.
According to him, the only factor that could help the Russian forces in their advance is the condition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian troops are also exhausted, suffering losses, and lacking the weapons they need to hold the defense and repel enemy attacks.
"Therefore, whether the Russians manage to advance doesn’t depend solely on them; nothing has changed on their end. Much depends on us and our partners: how effectively we can continue the mobilization processes within the country — that's our homework — and how much our partners can increase, or at least maintain, the supply of weapons to us," the expert noted.
At the same time, Hetman added that it is easier to launch offensives during the summer campaign because there is greenery and tree lines, which make it harder to spot enemies and allow them to hide and move less noticeably. There is also no rain, the ground is firm, and even very light motorcycle equipment can be used.
"Therefore, there are certain additional opportunities for the attacking army. But to sum up, nothing unexpected is happening — no significant reinforcement of Russian forces or major weakening of our Armed Forces has been observed. So, it’s reasonable to cautiously assume that the Russians will not achieve any serious successes, despite their talk of reaching the outskirts of Kyiv or capturing Sumy and Kharkiv. They’ve said things like that many times. To start believing what the Russians say again, in my opinion, would already be in bad taste," the expert noted.
Russia’s summer offensive
As a reminder, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently stated that Russian forces have been on the offensive along all directions of the front for several months. The occupiers are putting the most effort into the Sumy region.
"Their offensive actions began in all directions. The main direction was the Sumy direction, where 67,000 troops were concentrated. We took appropriate steps to prevent them from uniting," Zelenskyy said.
According to him, Russian troops are now working on regrouping and replenishing their forces.
The Kharkiv Operational Tactical Group also reported that the Russian army is amassing troops, and the summer offensive campaign has in fact already begun.
