Will Russia refocus its offensive on south? Expert highlights key factors

According to him, the situation in Donbas is already well known: Russian troops have entered the territory, Ukrainian forces are holding the defense without significant success, despite intense pressure that has lasted for over half a year.

“The south of Ukraine - they (the Russian forces - ed.) will face huge logistical problems there. They would need to deliver a massive amount of shells and fuel, which must be done either through Crimea or along the coastline under fire from Ukrainian forces,” the expert noted.

He also emphasized that the Sumy and Kharkiv regions have a shorter logistics leg since the railway network and ammunition depots are located close to Russian territory, making these directions more logical for an offensive than the south or Donbas.

"That’s exactly what the President of Ukraine is saying - that the Sumy and Kharkiv regions are potentially the main directions of a Russian offensive," Narozhnyi added.

Threat of a Russian offensive

Ukrainian forces are preparing for the possibility that Russia may intensify its offensive actions along most front-line directions at the end of spring or the beginning of summer.

According to RBC-Ukraine sources, the Ukrainian command believes that Russia could launch offensive operations in the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. Notably, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia has already begun a new offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

Syrskyi also stated that in recent weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated about 16 square kilometers of territory in the Donetsk region.

More details about whether Russia is planning a large-scale offensive can be found in the material by RBC-Ukraine.