Ukrainian expert warns about risks of a temporary ceasefire with Russia
Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Russia will likely not abandon talks about a ceasefire but may use them to buy time. The final decision will depend on Ukraine’s position and the response of its partners, states political analyst Ihor Reiterovych in a comment to RBC-Ukraine’s YouTube channel.
A journalist from RBC-Ukraine asked whether it is possible that Russia might formally agree to a 30-day ceasefire but, in reality, would not adhere to it, using that time to prolong the situation on the front.
In response, the expert noted that if a ceasefire is agreed upon, a specific start date will be set, and it will not be controlled solely by Russia or Ukraine.
He emphasized that it will definitely be necessary to involve third parties who can monitor compliance with the agreements, and international partners will conclude who exactly violates the ceasefire.
"Ultimately, note that none of the countries supporting Ukraine have ever accused Ukraine of any violations of the Easter ceasefire or the so-called ceasefire during the May holidays observed in Russia. No one has mentioned that; on the contrary, they spoke about violations on the part of the Russian Federation. So if something is declared about a ceasefire, then other countries will have to get involved to somehow monitor it," Reiterovych said.
He noted that it is currently assumed that this monitoring would be done by the Americans, Turks, who are already ready to take this on, and some Europeans.
The journalist noted that the expert seems not to be betting on the ceasefire actually happening.
To this, the expert explained that he leans more toward the view that Russia will try to propose a format that allows it to buy time rather than truly stop the fighting.
"I don’t think they will outright reject any talks. They will try to play this game, drag it out in time. And most likely, they will attempt this. Then it will depend on Ukraine’s position — whether we want to play this game or not," he concluded.
Reiterovych also assessed the idea of American President Donald Trump regarding his personal meeting with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Today, in Istanbul, the first meeting in three years took place between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.
More details about how the negotiations in Istanbul went can be found in the RBC-Ukraine material.
