They have a mission: Expert explains what Russia counting on during summer campaign

According to Samus, the Russian troops plan to break through the front at any point by autumn to gain the opportunity to achieve more than slow advancement. To this end, they have chosen several directions.

In the Sumy direction, the Russian forces managed to make some progress into Ukrainian territory. But the main pressure is now in Donbas — Russian troops continue their attempts to capture Pokrovsk, enter the Dnipropetrovsk region, and reach Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.

Sumy direction: Russia’s objectives

At the border with the Sumy region, the situation, the expert noted, is very similar to what happened in May last year in the Kharkiv region. Like in the case of Vovchansk, the Russian army advanced about eight kilometers deep along a 10-kilometer front, after which the Russian offensive stalled.

The Russian forces have already suffered heavy losses in attempts to push forward. But despite this, they will continue assault operations because the Russian high command demands progress and victories from their subordinates. The minimum task for the Russian troops in this direction is to reach positions from which they can confidently shell Sumy.

"There are about 50,000 Russian troops there, pressing to achieve at least the minimum goal — to get within artillery range of the city of Sumy, so they can terrorize it with direct artillery strikes and constantly destroy the city without using expensive ballistic missiles, terrorizing the local population, creating the illusion that living there is no longer possible and that Ukraine is retreating," explained Samus.

Donetsk direction: Situation

Donbas remains the main focus of the Russian offensive. They are pursuing several tactical and strategic objectives here:

• To capture Pokrovsk;

• To reach the administrative border with the Dnipropetrovsk region;

• To advance into the Kostiantynivka–Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration;

• To occupy the Donetsk region within its administrative borders.

Attempts to reach the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk region serve more of a propaganda purpose than a tactical one: the Russian troops want to claim they have "entered" another region.

"But this story has already stretched out for several months. Even Western media have announced Russian advances into the Dnipropetrovsk region multiple times. It later turned out these were sabotage groups or isolated enemy units that were then destroyed, and that was the end of it," Samus reminded.

The main directions for the enemy remain Pokrovsk and the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk area. Despite heavy losses, the Russian forces continue to apply pressure there. Over 110,000 Russian troops are concentrated in this direction.

Don’t fall for manipulation

Since the Pokrovsk direction is one of the main ones, it’s quite obvious that there is strong Russian pressure there. The situation with two settlements in the Pokrovsk direction that the Russian forces managed to occupy after five months shows that the situation is more controlled than not.

"However, the Ukrainian command controls the situation… That is, this again shows whether the front is collapsing or not, that a huge Russian machine managed to occupy these two villages in five months," Samus added.

In other words, there is no need to fall for manipulations, primarily from Western media, which have started writing that the front is supposedly collapsing.

"That’s not how the Western press wrote literally a week ago — that everything is lost, everything is falling apart, and so on. Again, that article was manipulative. And what we see now is that there is no breakthrough," he concluded.

What the Russian forces are planning

The Khortytsia operational-strategic group of troops also believes that during the summer of 2025, the Russian army will try to reach the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The enemy’s plans also include finally capturing Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, occupying Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, and breaking through to Kupiansk in Kharkiv region.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, confirmed that the enemy has concentrated over 110,000 soldiers in the Pokrovsk direction. This remains the hottest front.

Meanwhile, in the Sumy region, the enemy’s advance has been stopped, and moreover, a series of counterattacks have been carried out. The Russian offensive here has stalled and is costing Russia heavy losses. Their situation is such that Russian soldiers are deserting or surrendering in entire assault groups.