Political expert tells when Ukraine will have 'ideal scenario' for elections
Illustrative photo: Political scientist talks about when elections might be possible in Ukraine (Getty Images)
Elections in Ukraine will take place no earlier than six months after Ukraine and Russia agree on a ceasefire, states political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
According to the political scientist, Russia currently has a military advantage, which is why Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in negotiations for a ceasefire.
"There are far more arguments against Putin agreeing to end the war than those that could lead to an agreement. As long as he has a military advantage and as long as Russian troops can advance, there is a high likelihood that the war will continue," Fesenko believes.
This is why he is skeptical about the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine in the spring of next year. The political scientist notes that for this to happen, a ceasefire would need to be reached by January 20 or 25, and only then, possibly, elections could be held on May 25.
"I don't want to say 100%, but with a probability of 98-99%, there will be no elections in the spring. I don't believe that a ceasefire will be quickly agreed upon. My subjective forecast: the chances of reaching an agreement to stop hostilities in the spring are only 20-25%, not even 50%," the expert explained.
He added that even if a ceasefire is reached in the spring, elections may not take place until at least six months later, meaning in the fall.
"This is the optimistic scenario. But the opposite scenario is also possible, where the war and negotiations could drag on for at least another year. I am not an optimist about the possibility of quick elections. However, right now in the Verkhovna Rada, there is already a political fever — an extremely contagious disease that has spread widely among the deputies," he emphasized.
Presidential elections in Ukraine
Earlier, we reported that according to the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, the Constitution of Ukraine does not contain a direct ban on holding elections during wartime. However, such a ban is provided for in the law On the Legal Regime of Martial Law. This rule also applies to parliamentary elections, which were supposed to take place on October 29, 2023, as well as the presidential elections, which were planned for the end of March 2024.
