NABU law hits Zelenskyy - Expert explains impact on Ukraine's support

According to Fesenko, a conditional end to the "saga" can be expected only after July 31, as it is unlikely that lawmakers will simply show up and pass the vote quickly.

The expert emphasized that the vote on the bill, which proposed placing NABU and SAPO under the General Prosecutor’s Office, involved a "personal interest" for some members of Parliament.

"One thing is when they voted for that notorious bill subordinating NABU and SAPO to the Prosecutor General’s Office — in that case, I’d say many MPs had a sincere personal interest. Some were under investigation — not many, maybe two to three dozen — but still, such MPs existed," he said.

He also added that there were MPs who were critical of NABU or feared they might end up being investigated.

In the expert’s opinion, the new Prosecutor General is acting more cautiously than the head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk, who actively supported the bill and conducted a "special operation against NABU."

The expert believes that the new Prosecutor General is acting with a fair amount of flexibility.

"And he’s not going to be a simple executor. Malyuk acted more actively. He supported the bill and essentially carried out an active special operation against NABU beforehand," Fesenko said.

He believes the Prosecutor General is thinking about his political future and is therefore taking a more cautious position.

"I think he is already thinking about the future, considering how toxic this situation is. He’s a young person, and I believe he’s concerned not only about his political, but perhaps also other aspects of his future," the expert added.

The law triggered a political crisis

According to him, the current situation has become a clear political crisis, even if not a large-scale one.

"What happened — I mean the public protests and the reaction of our international partners — has become a manifestation of the first political crisis since the start of the full-scale war with Russia. Thankfully, it is not a sharp or large-scale crisis that could destabilize the internal situation, but it is clearly a crisis," Fesenko emphasized.

He considers the adoption of the anti-NABU bill a mistake that damaged President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team.

"This hit the interests of Zelenskyy himself and his team. Maybe we don’t fully see it yet, but I think there will be negative consequences in terms of ratings and some other negative consequences," he suggested.

The expert also drew attention to the wave of publications in Western media, which, according to him, has not yet ended, as well as the suspension of certain tranches of international aid to Ukraine.

"This wave of negative coverage in the Western press - it’s not over yet, more will follow. It influences public opinion, and our international partners will take a tougher stance. As you mentioned, certain tranches have already been suspended. That concerns the Ukraine Facility program," the expert noted.

He emphasized that this program is the main source of budgetary support for Ukraine and warned that the conditions for receiving assistance will now become stricter.

"They will impose strict conditions on us again, as they did before the war. There are specific benchmarks, and the ability to receive new funds will entirely depend on meeting those requirements," he explained.

According to Fesenko, these requirements will concern domestic reforms and anti-corruption policy, which will be under special control of Western partners.

Bill on NABU and SAPO

Earlier this week, the Verkhovna Rada effectively curtailed the powers of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) by passing a controversial law. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos reacted to the decision, calling it a serious step back. The G7 ambassadors also expressed concern at the time.

Zelenskyy’s draft law

On July 24, President Zelenskyy submitted a new bill to Parliament aimed at ensuring the independence of NABU and SAPO and preventing Russian influence over Ukraine’s anti-corruption bodies.

The proposed legislation includes a provision requiring NABU staff and certain law enforcement officials with access to state secrets to undergo polygraph testing at least once every two years.