Is there threat of new Russian Oreshnik strike on Ukraine: Expert assessment
Illustrative photo: Expert assesses whether there is a threat of a new Russian Oreshnik strike on Ukraine (RusMedia)
Russian troops are likely preparing a new massive strike on Ukraine in the near future. However, it is still unknown whether they will use the Oreshnik or other missiles, states military expert Ivan Stupak in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
"Right now, there's another red flag. So, I urge all citizens to be very attentive. We should already be cautious during this entire period. There have been so many alerts, over a thousand just in Kyiv, but we don’t know where exactly we should expect a large-scale strike," said Stupak.
Commenting on the US embassy's warning about the "increased threat" of Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure, he noted that the United States doesn’t share such information without reason.
"A strike will happen. What will it be?'Oreshnik, Rubezh, Kokoshnik? We don’t know. Russia is likely already in the preparation phase, and perhaps in the next few days, such a launch will occur," added the expert.
He pointed out that usually, Russia informs the US about its plans to use ballistic missiles for strikes on Ukraine.
"Russia informs the United States about what is planned to use, as it did last time, that it intends to use something ballistic. So, the US, when you see it on your radars, your sensors, your reconnaissance, it’s not for you. It’s for local use here, in Ukraine. It doesn’t concern you, so there’s no need to strike back," Stupak added.
The expert also confirmed that it is almost 100% likely that Russia will use the Oreshnik missile or something similar for a new massive strike on Ukraine.
"Yes, something large. But again, we are analyzing our previous experience. There was the experience on the 20th, when the United States informed, and the next day, on the 21st, there was a strike. The same type of warning on December 8th. We don’t know when the strike will happen, but with a very high probability, it will," he noted.
According to Stupak, a potential Russian strike could also be a response to Ukraine's missile program.
"Because I made such an analogy. In November, Ukraine reported producing the first hundred of its own long-range missiles, and by 2025, we will reach a figure of 3,000. Two weeks later, there’s an Oreshnik strike. Literally, on December 6th, Ukraine reports that we have our own Peklo drone-missile. On the 8th, the Americans warn, saying that attention, something is coming, going beyond the usual. So, we are expecting it. Where it will be, on which day, we don’t know. But the probability is very high," added the expert.
US warning
On December 8, the US embassy in Kyiv issued a warning about increased threats from Russian missiles and drones. US citizens were urged to stay informed by following air attack notifications from the Ukrainian government.
Additionally, last month, the US embassy in Kyiv was temporarily closed following reports of a potential "serious attack" on Ukraine on November 20.
Oreshnik strike on Ukraine
On November 21, Russia launched a missile strike on Dnipro. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russia had fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine for the first time.
Later, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Russian army conducted a test launch of the Oreshnik medium-range missile system. The Defense Intelligence clarified that the new missile was launched from the Kedr missile system.
As explained by the Defense Intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov, it is essentially the same missile. Putin used the name of the missile program Oreshnik, but the missile launch system is called Kedr.
