Is large-scale Russian offensive possible in Zaporizhzhia direction?
Photo: Ukrainian military (Getty Images)
Russian troops may try to resume offensive actions in the Zaporizhzhia direction. However, significant troop buildup by the enemy in this sector of the front is unlikely at this time, stated Ivan Tymochko, head of the Council of Reserve Officers of the Ground Forces, in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
"To open a new direction, they would need to accumulate at least a few thousand troops, on average 40-50 thousand additional personnel. They would either need to conduct mobilization, or I don't know what else they might promise or intimidate people with, to sharply increase the number of the Russian army," said Tymochko.
According to him, the Russian forces have already moved their strategic reserves to the front line. Therefore, it is unlikely that they can rapidly increase forces in one direction without withdrawing troops from others.
"They may try to resume new offensive actions in the Zaporizhzhia direction, I don't deny that. But this would mean that they would either have to sharply increase their contingent or significantly reduce their military presence in Crimea, as they would have to pull reserves from there," the representative of the Ukrainian Armed Forces noted.
He reminded that the Kherson-Zaporizhzhia direction, particularly in Krynky, has been a significant problem for the Russian army.
"And this is a small village that the Armed Forces of Ukraine held for a long time. And now they want to start a new attack in the Zaporizhzhia direction? Especially in an area where we previously had our counteroffensive, where everything is fortified on both sides... They might dare to try," Tymochko added.
He mentioned that some activation of Russian troops observed in the areas of Robotyne and Staromaiorske could indicate an attempt to play up some kind of activation to prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine from pulling the troops from these directions to more active fronts. It could also be that they are conducting reconnaissance by combat, a so-called testing of defense.
"At this stage, it's hard for me to say whether the situation in the Zaporizhzhia direction could change drastically. As a diversionary strike, yes. They can definitely carry that out. But if to talk about any significant buildup of forces and troops in the Zaporizhzhia direction in the near future - it is unlikely," Tymochko noted.
Situation in the Zaporizhzhia direction
Earlier, the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops are preparing to intensify assault operations in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Specifically, they are gathering personnel and vehicle equipment.
Meanwhile, military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko stated that the Russian army has become more active in the Zaporizhzhia direction, but a large-scale offensive aimed at capturing Zaporizhzhia will not take place.
